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Dinamica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas

  • Thomas M. Fullerton, Jr.

    ()

    (Department of Economics & Finance, University of Texas at El Paso)

  • Juan Carlos Vázquez Morales

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez)

  • Martha Patricia Barraza de Anda

    (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Autónoma de Ciudad Juárez)

This research analyzes short-run payroll dynamics associated with the maquiladora export sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. In contrast to other metropolitan economies for which similar econometric analyses have been completed, real currency movements are not found to be statistically significant. Explanatory variables that do satisfy the significance criterion include industrial activity in the United States, real wages, and the number of factories in operation. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of 1 to 24 months into the future.

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File URL: http://www.economia.uanl.mx/revistaensayos/xxx/1/Dinamica-de-corto-plazo-del-empleo-en-las-maquiladoras.pdf
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Article provided by Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia in its journal Ensayos Revista de Economia.

Volume (Year): XXX (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Pages: 23-40

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Handle: RePEc:ere:journl:v:xxx:y:2011:i:1:p:23-40
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  1. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
  2. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
  3. Jes�S Ca�As & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38.
  4. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & Luis B Torres Ruiz, 2004. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Development and Comp Systems 0412018, EconWPA.
  5. Thomas M Fullerton Jr & David A Schauer, 2004. "Short-Run Maquiladora Employment Dynamics," Urban/Regional 0407007, EconWPA.
  6. William C. Gruben, 2001. "Was NAFTA behind Mexico's high maquiladora growth?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 11-21.
  7. Fullerton, Th. & Lopez, J.J., 2005. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling for Mexico: 1980 – 2001," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 17-30.
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