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Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas
[Short-run dynamics of payrolls in the maquiladora sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas (Mexico)]

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Vazquez Morales, Juan Carlos
  • Barraza de Anda, Martha P.

Abstract

This research analyzes short-run payroll dynamics associated with the maquiladora export sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. In contrast to other metropolitan economies for which similar econometric analyses have been completed, real currency movements are not found to be statistically significant. Explanatory variables that do satisfy the significance criterion include industrial activity in the United States, real wages, and the number of factories in operation. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1- to 24 months into the future.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/34925/1/MPRA_paper_34925.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 34925.

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Date of creation: 09 Sep 2010
Date of revision: 15 Feb 2011
Publication status: Published in Ensayos Revista de Economía 1.30(2011): pp. 23-40
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34925
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Keywords: Maquiladoras; Mexico; Employment; Border Economics;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
  • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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  1. Hanson, Gordon H., 2001. "U.S.-Mexico Integration and Regional Economies: Evidence from Border-City Pairs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 259-287, September.
  2. Fullerton, Th. & Lopez, J.J., 2005. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling for Mexico: 1980 – 2001," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 17-30.
  3. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
  4. Thomas Fullerton & David Schauer, 2001. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 471-478, November.
  5. Thomas M. Fullerton & Torres Ruiz & Luis BernardoAuthor-Workplace-Name: University of Texas at E1 Pasio, USA, 2004. "Maquiladora employment dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 1-17, September.
  6. William C. Gruben, 2001. "Was NAFTA behind Mexico's high maquiladora growth?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 11-21.
  7. Jesús Cañas & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38.
  8. repec:kap:iaecre:v:7:y:2001:i:4:p:471-478 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
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