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Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas
[Short-run dynamics of payrolls in the maquiladora sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas (Mexico)]

Author

Listed:
  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr.
  • Vazquez Morales, Juan Carlos
  • Barraza de Anda, Martha P.

Abstract

This research analyzes short-run payroll dynamics associated with the maquiladora export sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas, Mexico. Parameter estimation is carried out using linear transfer function ARIMA analysis. In contrast to other metropolitan economies for which similar econometric analyses have been completed, real currency movements are not found to be statistically significant. Explanatory variables that do satisfy the significance criterion include industrial activity in the United States, real wages, and the number of factories in operation. Out-of-sample simulations indicate that the model is relatively accurate for forecasts of to 1- to 24 months into the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Fullerton, Thomas M., Jr. & Vazquez Morales, Juan Carlos & Barraza de Anda, Martha P., 2010. "Dinámica de corto plazo del empleo en las maquiladoras de Reynosa, Tamaulipas [Short-run dynamics of payrolls in the maquiladora sector of Reynosa, Tamaulipas (Mexico)]," MPRA Paper 34925, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Feb 2011.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:34925
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hanson, Gordon H., 2001. "U.S.-Mexico Integration and Regional Economies: Evidence from Border-City Pairs," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 259-287, September.
    2. Fullerton, Th. & Lopez, J.J., 2005. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling for Mexico: 1980 – 2001," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 17-30.
    3. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
    4. Thomas Fullerton & David Schauer, 2001. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 7(4), pages 471-478, November.
    5. Thomas M. Fullerton & Torres Ruiz & Luis BernardoAuthor-Workplace-Name: University of Texas at E1 Pasio, USA, 2004. "Maquiladora employment dynamics in Chihuahua City, Mexico," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 38(1), pages 1-17, September.
    6. William C. Gruben, 2001. "Was NAFTA behind Mexico's high maquiladora growth?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q III, pages 11-21.
    7. Jesús Cañas & Thomas M. Fullerton & Wm. Doyle Smith, 2007. "Maquiladora Employment Dynamics in Nuevo Laredo," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(1), pages 23-38, March.
    8. Roberto Coronado & Thomas M. Fullerton Jr. & Don P. Clark, 2004. "Short-run maquiladora employment dynamics in Tijuana," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(4), pages 751-763, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Maquiladoras; Mexico; Employment; Border Economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • R15 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Econometric and Input-Output Models; Other Methods

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