Qualitative business surveys and the assessment of employment -- A case study for Germany
AbstractBusiness tendency surveys are a commonly accepted instrument for the assessment ofthe current business cycle course. Most of these surveys rely on qualitative questionsabout the current situation of the firms and about heir expectations for the next months. This paper analyzes whether qualitative questions about employment expectations are useful to assess actual employment changes. In Germany the Ifo Institute is specialized on business surveys. The German Ifo data are investigated using three different approaches: Smoothing techniques help to date turning points in the course of the series. Error correction models are used to analyze the general lead/lag relations and Probit models are used to estimate a threshold for the survey based indicator which helps to differentiate between an increase and an decrease in employment. All three methods indicate that the employment expectations form a leading indicator of actual employment changes.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 23 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast
Other versions of this item:
- Klaus Abberger, 2005. "Qualitative Business Surveys and theAssessment of Employment A Case Study for Germany," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 11, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
- C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001.
"Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, September.
- Tom Doan, . "SEASONALDLM: RATS procedure to create the matrices for the seasonal component of a DLM," Statistical Software Components RTS00251, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Georg (Hrsg.) Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15, 8.
- Klaus Abberger, 2004. "Nonparametric Regression and the Detection of Turning Points in the Ifo Business Climate," CESifo Working Paper Series 1283, CESifo Group Munich.
- Granger, C. W. J., 1988. "Some recent development in a concept of causality," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1-2), pages 199-211.
- Kjetil Martinsen & Francesco Ravazzolo & Fredrik Wulfsberg, 2011.
"Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data,"
2011/04, Norges Bank.
- Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
- Klaus Abberger, 2008. "Das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer: Ein Druckmesser für den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 19-22, 05.
- Michael Berlemann & Gerit Vogt, 2007. ""Timing ist alles" : Konsequenzen der Entscheidung über die Ziel-1-Fördergebiete der Europäischen Kohäsions- und Strukturpolitik vom Dezember 2005 für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(06), pages 3-11, December.
- Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
- Robert Lehmann, 2010. "Der ostdeutsche Arbeitsmarkt: Kann das ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer dessen konjunkturelle Dynamik abbilden?," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(06), pages 27-32, December.
- Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2014. "Forecasting employment in Europe: Are survey results helpful?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 182, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Francesco, D'Amuri, 2009. "Predicting unemployment in short samples with internet job search query data," MPRA Paper 18403, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2008. "European Data Watch: Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 307-319.
- Sascha O. Becker & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Micro Data at the Ifo Institute for Economic Research – The “Ifo Business Survey”, Usage and Access," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 47, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Klaus Abberger & Sascha O. Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Bestand, Verwendung, Zugang," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 44, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Hutter, Christian & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "Constructing a new leading indicator for unemployment from a survey among German employment agencies," IAB Discussion Paper 201317, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
- Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
- Klaus Abberger & Sascha Becker & Barbara Hofmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2007. "Mikrodaten im ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung – Bestand, Verwendung und Zugang," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 27-42, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.