Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real economy and stock returns for the United States

Contents:

Author Info

  • Gregoriou, Andros
  • Hunter, John
  • Wu, Feng

Abstract

US asset prices are modelled in the short- and long-run with the use of a seemingly unrelated system using monthly data over the time period, 1983-2004. Once the shocks of 1987, 1997 and post-"9·11" have been accounted for, then volatility only affects the consumption and inflation equations. In the long run excess returns and inflation are driven by consumption growth. Money growth impacts excess returns and inflation via consumption. Income is super exogenous implying that policy can be made conditional on this variable and that in the long run investors are primarily concerned with income growth.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V82-4SP3SK9-4/2/80856a795304f73b1b2ea0e82b16c766
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Policy Modeling.

Volume (Year): 31 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 133-143

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:133-143

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735

Related research

Keywords: ARCH Excess returns Exogeneity Long-run returns SURE;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Campbell, John & Cochrane, John, 2000. "Explaining the Poor Performance of Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models," Scholarly Articles 3163265, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. " What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
  3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  4. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  8. Robert J. Shiller & Andrea E. Beltratti, 1990. "Stock Prices and Bond Yields: Can Their Comovements Be Explained in Terms of Present Value Models?," NBER Working Papers 3464, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
  10. James G. MacKinnon & Alfred A. Haug & Leo Michelis, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Working Papers, York University, Department of Economics 1996_07, York University, Department of Economics.
  11. Hunter, John & Isachenkova, Natalia, 2006. "Aggregate economy risk and company failure: An examination of UK quoted firms in the early 1990s," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 911-919, November.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
  14. Lund, Jesper & Engsted, Tom, 1996. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM: evidence from the Danish, German, Swedish and UK stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 497-521, August.
  15. Deaton, Angus S, 1977. "Involuntary Saving through Unanticipated Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 899-910, December.
  16. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  17. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "The Equity Premium: It's Still a Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 42-71, March.
  18. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
  19. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
  20. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119, October.
  21. Ross, Stephen A., 1976. "The arbitrage theory of capital asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 341-360, December.
  22. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  23. Hendry, David F, 1995. "Econometrics and Business Cycle Empirics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(433), pages 1622-36, November.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Majumder, Debasish, 2013. "Towards an efficient stock market: Empirical evidence from the Indian market," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 572-587.
  2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & John Hunter & Faek Menla Ali, 2013. "On the Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Banking Crisis of 2007-2010," CESifo Working Paper Series 4189, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1124-1144.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:31:y:2009:i:1:p:133-143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.