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Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas

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  • Monterrey Mayoral, Juan
  • Sánchez Segura, Amparo

Abstract

En el presente trabajo llevamos a cabo una evaluación crítica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad basados en el concepto de persistencia, probando su eficacia sobre una amplia muestra de empresas españolas. Nuestros resultados ponen de manifiesto cómo 2 de las técnicas analizadas, la autorregresiva y la de separación de componentes, aportan las estimaciones de mayor calidad en la mayoría de las ocasiones y exhiben, en líneas generales, el mayor contenido predictivo incremental para diferentes especificaciones de la rentabilidad y para horizontes temporales a uno y 5 años. Además, la evidencia obtenida también revela que la calidad de las predicciones no depende solamente de la elección del método de estimación, sino que también guarda una importante relación con las propias características corporativas de las compañías, tales como el tamaño, las tasas de crecimiento o los niveles actuales de rentabilidad.

Suggested Citation

  • Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spacre:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:95-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rcsar.2016.08.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capacidad predictiva; Rentabilidad; Análisis de estados financieros; Predictive ability; Profitability; Financial statement analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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