IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/joares/v47y2009i1p147-178.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?

Author

Listed:
  • PATRICIA M. FAIRFIELD
  • SUNDARESH RAMNATH
  • TERI LOMBARDI YOHN

Abstract

Prior research documents mean reversion in firm profitability and growth under the implicit assumption that profitability and growth of all firms revert to a common benchmark at the same rate. However, a large body of academic research suggests that there are systematic interindustry differences (e.g., industry barriers to entry) that differentially affect firm performance based on industry membership. We evaluate the relative forecast accuracy of mean reverting models at the industry and economywide levels and find that industry‐specific models are generally more accurate in predicting firm growth but not profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:47:y:2009:i:1:p:147-178
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00313.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00313.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1475-679X.2008.00313.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    2. Collins, Dw, 1976. "Predicting Earnings With Sub-Entity Data - Some Further Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 163-177.
    3. Mills, David E & Schumann, Laurence, 1985. "Industry Structure with Fluctuating Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 758-767, September.
    4. Dennis Mueller & Burkhard Raunig, 1999. "Heterogeneities within Industries and Structure-Performance Models," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 15(4), pages 303-320, December.
    5. R. E. Caves & M. E. Porter, 1977. "From Entry Barriers to Mobility Barriers: Conjectural Decisions and Contrived Deterrence to New Competition," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 91(2), pages 241-261.
    6. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Reply to commentaries on "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 343-344, November.
    7. Meyers, Stephen L, 1973. "A Re-Examination of Market and Industry Factors in Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 28(3), pages 695-705, June.
    8. Yiannis E. Spanos & George Zaralis & Spyros Lioukas, 2004. "Strategy and industry effects on profitability: evidence from Greece," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 139-165, February.
    9. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    10. Demsetz, Harold, 1973. "Industry Structure, Market Rivalry, and Public Policy," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(1), pages 1-9, April.
    11. Barber, Brad M. & Lyon, John D., 1996. "Detecting abnormal operating performance: The empirical power and specification of test statistics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 359-399, July.
    12. Joe S. Bain, 1951. "Relation of Profit Rate to Industry Concentration: American Manufacturing, 1936–1940," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 65(3), pages 293-324.
    13. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 2000. "Forecasting Profitability and Earnings," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(2), pages 161-175, April.
    14. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stig63-1, March.
    15. Gale, Bradley T, 1972. "Market Share and Rate of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 54(4), pages 412-423, November.
    16. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    17. Sanjeev Bhojraj & Charles M. C. Lee & Derek K. Oler, 2003. "What's My Line? A Comparison of Industry Classification Schemes for Capital Market Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 745-774, December.
    18. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Front matter, "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries" including Preface," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages -21--9, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    20. Philip G. Berger & Rebecca Hann, 2003. "The Impact of SFAS No. 131 on Information and Monitoring," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 163-223, May.
    21. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Introduction to "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages 3-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Kinney, Wr, 1971. "Predicting Earnings - Entity Versus Subentity Data," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 127-136.
    23. Clarke, Richard N, 1989. "SICs as Delineators of Economic Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 17-31, January.
    24. George J. Stigler, 1963. "Errata Statement for "Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital and Rates of Return in Manufacturing Industries, pages 2-8, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Jayanthi Krishnan & Eric Press, 2003. "The North American Industry Classification System and Its Implications for Accounting Research," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 685-717, December.
    26. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    27. Lippman, Steven A & McCardle, Kevin F & Rumelt, Richard P, 1991. "Heterogeneity under Competition," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(4), pages 774-782, October.
    28. Cubbin, John & Geroski, Paul A, 1987. "The Convergence of Profits in the Long Run: Inter-firm and Inter-industry Comparisons," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(4), pages 427-442, June.
    29. Williams, Joseph T, 1995. "Financial and Industrial Structure with Agency," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 431-474.
    30. Brown, Philip, 1993. "Comments on 'Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research' by L. Brown," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 331-335, November.
    31. Abarbanell, Jeffrey S & Bernard, Victor L, 1992. "Tests of Analysts' Overreaction/Underreaction to Earnings Information as an Explanation for Anomalous Stock Price Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1181-1207, July.
    32. Schmalensee, Richard, 1985. "Do Markets Differ Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 341-351, June.
    33. Freeman, Rn & Ohlson, Ja & Penman, Sh, 1982. "Book Rate-Of-Return And Prediction Of Earnings Changes - An Empirical-Investigation," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 639-653.
    34. William R. Gebhardt & Charles M. C. Lee & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2001. "Toward an Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 135-176, June.
    35. Kothari, S.P. & Leone, Andrew J. & Wasley, Charles E., 2005. "Performance matched discretionary accrual measures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 163-197, February.
    36. Peter MacKay & Gordon M. Phillips, 2005. "How Does Industry Affect Firm Financial Structure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1433-1466.
    37. Richard P. Rumelt, 1991. "How much does industry matter?," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 167-185, March.
    38. Porter, Michael E, 1979. "The Structure within Industries and Companies' Performance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(2), pages 214-227, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brett W. Cantrell & Victoria Dickinson, 2020. "Conditional Life Cycle: An Examination of Operating Performance for Leaders and Laggards," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 433-451, January.
    2. Saeed Ahmed, 2007. "Forecasting Profitability, Earnings, and Corporate Taxes: Evidence from UK Companies," SBP Working Paper Series 16, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    3. Monterrey Mayoral, Juan & Sánchez Segura, Amparo, 2017. "Una evaluación empírica de los métodos de predicción de la rentabilidad y su relación con las características corporativas," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-106.
    4. Senarathne Chamil W. & Long Wei, 2019. "Industry Competition and Common Stock Returns," Management Sciences. Nauki o Zarządzaniu, Sciendo, vol. 24(3), pages 24-35, September.
    5. Hou, Kewei & van Dijk, Mathijs A. & Zhang, Yinglei, 2012. "The implied cost of capital: A new approach," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 504-526.
    6. Alexander P. Paton & Damien Cannavan & Stephen Gray & Khoa Hoang, 2020. "Analyst versus model‐based earnings forecasts: implied cost of capital applications," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 4061-4092, December.
    7. Feng Li & Russell Lundholm & Michael Minnis, 2013. "A Measure of Competition Based on 10‐K Filings," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 399-436, May.
    8. Mundt, Philipp & Alfarano, Simone & Milaković, Mishael, 2020. "Exploiting ergodicity in forecasts of corporate profitability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    9. Kjell Bjørn Nordal & Randi Næs, 2012. "Mean Reversion in Profitability for Non†listed Firms," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(5), pages 929-949, November.
    10. Andrew B. Jackson & Marlene A. Plumlee & Brian R. Rountree, 2018. "Decomposing the market, industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1071-1095, September.
    11. Kothari, S. P., 2001. "Capital markets research in accounting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-3), pages 105-231, September.
    12. Dan Dhaliwal & Linda Krull & Oliver Zhen Li & William Moser, 2005. "Dividend Taxes and Implied Cost of Equity Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(5), pages 675-708, December.
    13. Juan Carlos Bou & Albert Satorra, 2003. "The persistence of abnormal returns at industry and firm levels," Economics Working Papers 729, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    14. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    15. Philipp Mundt & Simone Alfarano & Mishael Milaković, 2022. "Survival and the Ergodicity of Corporate Profitability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(5), pages 3726-3734, May.
    16. Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Tsang, Albert, 2011. "The valuation-relevance of the foreign translation adjustment: The effect of barriers to entry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 431-458.
    17. Yuan Yin & Ken Peasnell & Herbert G. Hunt, 2018. "How do sell-side analysts obtain price-earnings multiples to value firms?," Accounting and Business Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 108-135, January.
    18. Olga Fullana & Juan M. Nave & David Toscano, 2018. "The implied equity duration when discounting and forecasting parameters are industry specific," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 179-209, November.
    19. Abdur Chowdhury, 1996. "An empirical test of the structure‐conduct‐performance paradigm in the Asian and Pacific basin countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 233-251.
    20. Blouin, Jennifer & Core, John E. & Guay, Wayne, 2010. "Have the tax benefits of debt been overestimated?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 195-213, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:47:y:2009:i:1:p:147-178. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-8456 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.