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A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy

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Author Info

  • Qin, Duo
  • Cagas, Marie Anne
  • Ducanes, Geoffrey
  • He, Xinhua
  • Liu, Rui
  • Liu, Shiguo
  • Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn
  • Quising, Pilipinas

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 24 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 (September)
Pages: 814-822

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:24:y:2007:i:5:p:814-822

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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References

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  1. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
  2. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model at Forty," IMF Working Papers 97/49, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2005. "Income Disparity and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Working Papers 548, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  5. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
  2. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2010. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," Working Papers 660, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2013. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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