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Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?

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  • Duo Qin
  • Xinhua He

Abstract

This study provides quarterly time-series estimates of the misalignment in the REER of the Renminbi (RMB). The estimation is based on a commonly used economic approach, but with a wider and more up-to-date coverage of data and a more extensive use of econometric modelling techniques. Our estimates corroborate and explain most of the previous estimates. More importantly, our estimates demonstrate that there is no significant undervaluation in the REER of the RMB though downward misalignment exists in the trilateral rates between the RMB, US$ and euro. The finding refutes the claim that RMB appreciation is the primary and necessary solution to the current global trade imbalance. --

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal The World Economy.

Volume (Year): 34 (2011)
Issue (Month): 8 (08)
Pages: 1288-1307

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Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:34:y:2011:i:8:p:1288-1307

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  1. Kakkar, Vikas & Ogaki, Masao, 1999. "Real exchange rates and nontradables: A relative price approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 193-215, April.
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu & Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos & Pilipinas Quising, 2006. "A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy," Working Papers 553, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Ronald MacDonald & Preethike Dias, 2007. "Behavioural equilibrium exchange rate estimates and implied exchange rate adjustments for ten countries," Working Papers 2007_12, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  5. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society.
  6. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  7. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March.
  8. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "China's financial conundrum and global imbalances," BIS Working Papers 277, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. MacDonald, Ronald & Ricci, Luca Antonio, 2007. "Real exchange rates, imperfect substitutability, and imperfect competition," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 639-664, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Roland Döhrn & Tobias Kitlinski & Torsten Schmidt & Simeon Vosen, 2010. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland zur Jahreswende 2009/2010 - Belasteter Aufschwung," RWI Konjunkturbericht, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, pages 31, 03.

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