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The macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the rest of world : A global computable general equilibrium analysis

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  • Yang, Jun
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Tokgoz, Simla

Abstract

There has been contentious debate surrounding the issue of undervaluation of the Chinese Renminbi. Despite continuous international political pressure to appreciate its currency, the Chinese government has resisted significant changes. A key question underlining the debate is whether a Renminbi appreciation would deliver substantial gains for exports and employment as the United States has argued or a significant slowdown of Chinese economy as feared by the Chinese government, and if so to what extent. This paper analyzes the ex-ante, short-term impacts of the Chinese Renminbi appreciation on the Chinese and world economies using the novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the Global Trade Analysis Project, a global computable general equilibrium model. Scenario results show that the Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real gross domestic product, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has a positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, but by a small margin. With a higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balances for other trading partner countries, with the exception of the United States, improve.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in its series IFPRI discussion papers with number 1178.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1178

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Keywords: Computable general equilibrium model; Exchange rate; Economic impacts; Renminbi appreciation;

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  1. Funke, Michael & Rahn, Jörg, 2004. "Just how undervalued is the Chinese renminbi?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2004, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  2. Zhang, Jian & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2006. "Winners and losers: Assessing the impact of Chinese Yuan appreciation," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 995-1009, December.
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  7. Ming He Goh & Yoonbai Kim, 2006. "Is The Chinese Renminbi Undervalued?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 24(1), pages 116-126, 01.
  8. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  9. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  10. van Tongeren, Frank W. & Huang, Jikun, 2004. "China'S Food Economy In The Early 21st Century; Development Of China'S Food Economy And Its Impact On Global Trade And On The Eu," Report Series 29093, Agricultural Economics Research Institute.
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