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Normas de cuenta corriente y tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia

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  • Carolina Arteaga

    ()

  • Roderick Luna

    ()

  • Jair Ojeda-Joya

    ()

Abstract

En este artículo estudiamos la estimación de un nivel de equilibrio de la cuenta corriente de la balanza de pagos de Colombia y sus posibles implicaciones para el desalineamiento de la tasa de cambio real. Se siguen dos metodologías alternativas para la estimación. Primero, se realiza una estimación a partir de los determinantes de largo plazo en países emergentes siguiendo a Chinn y Prasad (2003). Segundo, se estima un modelo basado en la teoría del suavizamiento de consumo siguiendo a Ghosh y Ostry (1995). Las implicaciones sobre la tasa de cambio real se basan en el enfoque del balance macroeconómico. Los resultados indican que a fin de 2010 el déficit observado en la cuenta corriente es superior a su nivel de equilibrio. No obstante, encontramos que este resultado corresponde a fluctuaciones cíclicas ya que el componente tendencial de la cuenta corriente es similar a su nivel de equilibrio. Por tanto, el desalineamiento estimado para la tasa de cambio real a fin de 2010 no es significativo estadísticamente.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 009150.

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Length: 32
Date of creation: 23 Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:009150

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Keywords: Tasa de cambio real; cuenta corriente de equilibrio; cuenta corrientesubyacente; consumo suavizado.;

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  1. Ghosh, Atish R & Ostry, Jonathan D, 1995. "The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 9(2), pages 305-33, May.
  2. Nabil Aflouk & Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier & Jamel Saadaoui, 2011. "Exchange Rate Misalignments and World Imbalances: a FEER Approach for Emerging Countries," Post-Print, HAL halshs-00484808, HAL.
  3. Ronald MacDonald & Peter B. Clark, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Economic Fundamentals," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 98/67, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La Tasa De Cambio Real De Equilibrio En Colombia Y Su Desalineamiento: Estimación A Través De Un Modelo Svec," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. John Y. Campbell, 1986. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 1805, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2009. "2009 Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB09-10, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "China's Current Account and Exchange Rate," Working Papers, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research 142009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  8. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1151, European Central Bank.
  9. Mark, Nelson C. & Sul, Donggyu, 2001. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: Evidence from a small post-Bretton woods panel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 29-52, February.
  10. Se-Eun Jeong & Jacques Mazier, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Equilibrium Exchange Rates in East Asia," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 54(5), pages 1161-1182.
  11. Jaewoo Lee & Jonathan David Ostry & Alessandro Prati & Luca Antonio Ricci & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Exchange Rate Assessments," IMF Occasional Papers, International Monetary Fund 261, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  13. repec:cml:incocp:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
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Cited by:
  1. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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