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A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

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Author Info

  • Duo Qin

    (Queen Mary, University of London)

  • Marie Anne Cagas

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Geoffrey Ducanes

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Xinhua He

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Rui Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Shiguo Liu

    (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))

  • Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

  • Pilipinas Quising

    (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 553.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp553

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Keywords: Macroeconometric model; Chinese economy; Forecasts; Simulations;

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  1. J. J. Polak, 1997. "The IMF Monetary Model At Forty," IMF Working Papers 97/49, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. J. J. Polak, 1957. "Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 1-50, November.
  4. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  5. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Geoffrey Ducanes & Xinhua He & Rui Liu & Shiguo Liu, 2005. "Income Disparity and Economic Growth: Evidence from China," Working Papers 548, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
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Cited by:
  1. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2010. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," Working Papers 660, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  2. Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Matthews, Kent & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Xiao, Zhiguo, 2013. "Banking and the Macroeconomy in China: A Banking Crisis Deferred?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9422, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
  4. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.

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