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A Macroeconometric Model of the Chinese Economy

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Author Info
Duo Qin () (Queen Mary, University of London)
Marie Anne Cagas (Asian Development Bank (ADB))
Geoffrey Ducanes (Asian Development Bank (ADB))
Xinhua He (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))
Rui Liu (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))
Shiguo Liu (Institute of World Economics & Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS))
Nedelyn Magtibay-Ramos (Asian Development Bank (ADB))
Pilipinas Quising (Asian Development Bank (ADB))

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Abstract

This paper describes a quarterly macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy. The model comprises household consumption, investment, government, trade, production, prices, money, and employment blocks. The equilibrium-correction form is used for all the behavioral equations and the general→simple dynamic specification approach is adopted. Great efforts have been made to achieve the best possible blend of standard long-run theories, country-specific institutional features and short-run dynamics in data. The tracking performance of the model is evaluated. Forecasting and empirical investigation of a number of topical macroeconomic issues utilizing model simulations have shown the model to be immensely useful.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 553.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:wp553

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Related research
Keywords: Macroeconometric model Chinese economy Forecasts Simulations

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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