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Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India

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  • Wani, M.H.
  • Paul, Ranjit Kumar
  • Bazaz, Naseer H.
  • Manzoor, M.

Abstract

The current study seeks to explore the degree of market integration through co-integration analysis on the wholesale weekly prices of three commercial varieties of Apple (American, Delicious and Moharaji) and their two important commercial grades (Special and Super) collected from five regional fruit markets of India during September, 2005 to February, 2013. The results reveal that apple markets are perfectly integrated, and the Delhi market is the dominant one. In the short run, a disequilibrium ranges from 2.1 to 96.9 per cent among all the varieties and grades of the selected fruits. However, the study finds no cointegration within two pairs of markets (Delhi-Srinagar and Bangalore-Kolkata) for the American Super variety and within one pair (Bangalore-Kolkata) for Moharaji Special. The Granger Causality Test reveals 39 and 18 bi-directional and uni-directional causations respectively under different market situations. Further, Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) results reveal a combination of positive and negative coefficients, though positive coefficients exceed the negative coefficients.

Suggested Citation

  • Wani, M.H. & Paul, Ranjit Kumar & Bazaz, Naseer H. & Manzoor, M., 2015. "Market integration and Price Forecasting of Apple in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:inijae:230026
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.230026
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    1. Zahoor Ahmad Shah & Mushtaq Ahmad Dar & Eajaz Ahmad Dar & Chukwujekwu A. Obianefo & Arif Hussain Bhat & Mohammed Tauseef Ali & Mohamed El-Sharnouby & Mustafa Shukry & Hosny Kesba & Samy Sayed, 2022. "Sustainable Fruit Growing: An Analysis of Differences in Apple Productivity in the Indian State of Jammu and Kashmir," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-24, November.
    2. repec:ers:journl:v:v:y:2017:i:2:p:69-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Taufiq Marwa & Abdul Bashir & Azwardi & Mohamad Adam & K.M.H. Thamrin, 2017. "Market Integration of Agricultural Products," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(2), pages 69-82.
    4. Paul, R.K. & Saxena, R. & Bhat, S.A., 2016. "How Price Signals in Pulses are Transmitted across Regions and Value Chain? Examining Horizontal and Vertical Market Price Integration for Major Pulses in India," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 29(Conferenc).
    5. Tatiana Papiashvili & Svetlana Saksonova & Ramona Rupeika-Apoga, 2017. "FDI Attraction: Comparative Analysis of the Baltic States and Georgia," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(3), pages 81-93.
    6. repec:ers:ijebaa:v:v:y:2017:i:1:p:69-82 is not listed on IDEAS

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