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Politikberatung und empirische Wirtschaftsforschung: Entwicklungen, Probleme, Optionen für mehr Rationalität in der Wirtschaftspolitik

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  • Andre Jungmittag

    ()
    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

  • Paul J.J. Welfens

    ()
    (Europäisches Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen (EIIW))

Abstract

Der Beitrag geht von der Beobachtung aus, dass es um die Akzeptanz der empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung in der Politikberatung nicht gut bestellt ist. Es wird argumentiert, dass die Ursachen dafür sowohl auf der Nachfrageseite nach Politikberatung als auch auf der Angebotsseite für empirische Wirtschaftsforschung liegen. Darauf aufbauend wird aus ökonometrischer Sicht eine mehrstufige Modellierungsstrategie vorgeschlagen, die ein wesentliches Element der durch die Anbieterseite verursachten Akzeptanzprobleme – die sog. Kochbuch-Ökonometrie – überwindet, weil sie in mehreren Schritten, deren Zulässigkeit in geeigneter Weise überprüfbar sein sollten, wenn möglich, zu validen strukturellen Modellen führt. Weil dies allein sicher nicht ausreicht, damit die empirische Wirtschaftsforschung eine wesentliche Basis für rationale Politikmaßnahmen wird, muss ihre Rolle in Lehre, Forschung und Politikberatung insgesamt gestärkt werden. Hierzu wird abschließend eine Reihe von Handlungsoptionen auf nationaler und supranationaler Ebene formuliert.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library in its series EIIW Discussion paper with number disbei121.

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Length: 36 Pages
Date of creation: May 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bwu:eiiwdp:disbei121

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Web page: http://elpub.bib.uni-wuppertal.de

Related research

Keywords: Politikberatung; Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung; Modellierungsstrategie;

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References

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  1. Clements, Michael P. & Mizon, Grayham E., 1991. "Empirical analysis of macroeconomic time series : VAR and structural models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 887-917, May.
  2. E. Ray Canterbery, 1984. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 7(1), pages 4-6, October.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  5. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
  6. Hendry, David F. & Neale, Adrian J. & Srba, Frank, 1988. "Econometric analysis of small linear systems using PC-FIML," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1-2), pages 203-226.
  7. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(03), pages 405-429, December.
  8. Bernd Schips, 2002. "Empirische Wirtschaftsforschung im Spannungsfeld zwischen Theorie und Politik," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 138(IV), pages 345-358, December.
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