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Variable-ordering induced problems of impulse-response analysis and other difficulties: the dividend policy of Austrian firms

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  • Tobias Basse
  • Sebastian Reddemann
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    Abstract

    Orthogonalised impulses are the standard way to isolate shocks to variables in a vector error correction model. While using the Cholesky decomposition to adjust interdependencies of the shocks, the ordering of the variables on the stage of estimation has a great impact on the resulting impulse response functions. It is shown how the variable ordering affects the empirical evaluation of the dividend policy of Austrian firms examining corporate earnings, dividends and inflation. Additional problems are discussed (e.g., bootstrapped confidence intervals and seasonal adjustment procedures, missing variables). The paper has two messages: it is a fatal flaw of any economic model to omit important variables. Moreover, it is also of major importance to use appropriate econometric modelling techniques.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Int. J. of Computational Economics and Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 1 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 3/4 ()
    Pages: 278-293

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    Handle: RePEc:ids:ijcome:v:1:y:2010:i:3/4:p:278-293

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    Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID==311

    Related research

    Keywords: corporate earnings; dividend policy; smoothing; variable ordering; cointegration; impulse response functions; Austria; dividends; signalling; inflation; econometric modelling.;

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    1. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    2. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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    4. Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
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    7. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1997. "Generalised Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9710, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Anari, Ali & Kolari, James, 2001. "Stock Prices and Inflation," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 24(4), pages 587-602, Winter.
    9. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December.
    10. Schotman, Peter C. & Schweitzer, Mark, 2000. "Horizon sensitivity of the inflation hedge of stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 301-315, November.
    11. Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19.
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