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Forecast evaluations in meat demand analysis

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Author Info

  • Zijun Wang

    (Private Enterprise Research Center, Academic Building West, Room 3028, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-4231., E-mail: z-wang@tamu.edu)

  • David A. Bessler

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843-4231., E-mail: d-bessler@tamu.edu)

Abstract

This article offers a comparison of short-term forecasting ability of five demand systems with an application to U.S. meat consumption. Four static demand systems (AIDS, Rotterdam, AIM, and DGM) and a dynamic Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) are considered. We tested the equality of mean square forecast errors. We also investigated the possibility of forecast encompassing among competing models. In general, the dynamic VECM model performed best, followed by the simple causal DGM model. Among three static systems, the AIDS model slightly leads the competition. Furthermore, this article provides the first evidence in literature on whether imposition of homogeneity restrictions on a cointegration space can improve the forecast accuracy of a VECM model: it does when it holds. [EconLit citations: Q10; C53]. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Agribusiness 19: 505-523, 2003.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/agr.10074
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Agribusiness.

Volume (Year): 19 (2003)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 505-523

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Handle: RePEc:wly:agribz:v:19:y:2003:i:4:p:505-523

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Web page: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1520-6297

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References

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  1. Terry L. Kastens & Gary W. Brester, 1996. "Model Selection and Forecasting Ability of Theory-Constrained Food Demand Systems," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 301-312.
  2. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  3. David A. Bessler & Derya G. Akleman, 1998. "Farm Prices, Retail Prices, and Directed Graphs: Results for Pork and Beef," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1144-1149.
  4. Arthur Havenner & Atanu Saha, 1999. "Globally Flexible Asymptotically Ideal Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(3), pages 703-710.
  5. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-38, Sept.-Oct.
  6. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  7. Chambers, Marcus J., 1990. "Forecasting with demand systems : A comparative study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 363-376, June.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guy Chapda Nana & Bruno Larue, 2012. "Imposing Curvature Conditions on Flexible Functional Forms for GNP Functions," Cahiers de recherche CREATE 2012-5, CREATE.
  2. Mu, Jianhong E. & McCarl, Bruce A. & Bessler, David A., 2013. "Impacts of BSE and Avian Influenza on U.S. Meat Demand," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150392, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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