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Modelling UK Inflation over the Long Run

Author

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  • David Hendry

Abstract

UK inflation varied greatly over 1865-1990, in response to many policy and exchange-rate regimes, two world wars and oil crises, and major legislative, and technological changes. It is modelled as responding to excess demands from all sectors of the economy: goods and services, factors of production, money, financial assets, foreign exchange, and government deficits, using indicator variables and commodity prices for special factors. Equilibrium-correction terms are developed for each of these. Variables representative of most theories of inflation mattered empirically over the sample, yielding an electric model which refutes any ‘single cause

Suggested Citation

  • David Hendry, 2000. "Modelling UK Inflation over the Long Run," Economics Series Working Papers 2, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:wpaper:2
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    File URL: https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:66ec561b-b53a-460c-951c-0ad274ecdd1b
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher Bowdler, 2003. "Openness and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff," Economics Papers 2003-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; dynamic modelling; cointegration; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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