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A multicriteria approach to model specification and estimation

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  • Kalaba, Robert
  • Tesfatsion, Leigh

Abstract

In decision theory, incommensurabilities among conflicting decision criteria are typically handled by multicriteria optimization methods such as Pareto efficiency and mean-variance analysis. In econometrics and statistics, where conflicting model criteria replace conflicting decision criteria, probability assessments are routinely used to transform disparate model discrepancy terms into apparently commensurable quantities. This tactic has both strengths and weaknesses. On the plus side, it permits the construction of a single real-valued measure of theory and data incompatibility in the form of a likelihood function or a posterior probability distribution. On the minus side, the amalgamation of conceptually distinct model discrepancy terms into a single real-valued incompatibility measure can make it difficult to untangle the true source of any diagnosed model specification problem. This paper discusses recent theoretical and empirical work on a multicriteria ``flexible least squares'' (FLS) approach to model specification and estimation. The basic FLS objective is to determine the ``cost-efficient frontier,'' that is, the set of estimates that are minimally incompatible with a specified set of model criteria. The relation of this work to previous work in econometrics, statistics, and systems science is also clarified.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Computational Statistics & Data Analysis.

Volume (Year): 21 (1996)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 193-214

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Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:21:y:1996:i:2:p:193-214

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References

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  1. Kalaba, R. & Rasakhoo, N. & Tesfatsion, L., 1988. "A Fortran Program For Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Papers m8730, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  2. Kalaba, R. & Tesfatsion, L., 1989. "A Multicriteria Approach To Dynamic Estimation," Papers 8904, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  3. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1989. "Time-Varying Linear Regression Via Flexible Least Squares," Staff General Research Papers 11196, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  4. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1988. "The Flexible Least Squares Approach to Time-Varying Linear Regression," Staff General Research Papers 11198, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  5. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1990. "An Organizing Principle for Dynamic Estimation," Staff General Research Papers 11194, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  6. Korhonen, Pekka & Moskowitz, Herbert & Wallenius, Jyrki, 1992. "Multiple criteria decision support - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 361-375, December.
  7. Kalaba, Robert E. & Tesfatsion, Leigh S., 1990. "Flexible Least Squares for Approximately Linear Systems," Staff General Research Papers 11190, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  8. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Veitch, John M., 1990. "U.S. money demand instability A flexible least squares approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 151-173, February.
  9. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Golany, B. & Seiford, L. & Stutz, J., 1985. "Foundations of data envelopment analysis for Pareto-Koopmans efficient empirical production functions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1-2), pages 91-107.
  10. Seiford, Lawrence M. & Thrall, Robert M., 1990. "Recent developments in DEA : The mathematical programming approach to frontier analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 7-38.
  11. James S. Dyer & Peter C. Fishburn & Ralph E. Steuer & Jyrki Wallenius & Stanley Zionts, 1992. "Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Multiattribute Utility Theory: The Next Ten Years," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(5), pages 645-654, May.
  12. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
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Cited by:
  1. Berzins, Janis & Liu, Crocker H. & Trzcinka, Charles, 2013. "Asset management and investment banking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 215-231.
  2. Peter Winker & Manfred Gilli & Vahidin Jeleskovic, 2007. "An Objective Function for Simulation Based Inference on Exchange Rate Data," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 07-01, Swiss Finance Institute.
  3. Vêlayoudom Marimoutou & Denis Peguin & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2009. "The "distance-varying" gravity model in international economics: is the distance an obstacle to trade?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1139-1155.
  4. Zsolt Darvas & Balázs Varga, 2012. "Uncovering Time-Varying Parameters with the Kalman-Filter and the Flexible Least Squares: a Monte Carlo Study," Working Papers 1204, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.

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