Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Forecasting with preliminary data: a comparison of two methods

Contents:

Author Info

  • Sucharita Ghosh
  • Donald Lien
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This study examines two alternate methods, a vector autoregression error correction model and a state space model, to forecast revised United States trade balance figures. Both these methods incorporate preliminary and revised trade data. The results obtained from these methods were compared to the benchmark forecasts generated by revised-data-only models. This Study finds that the state space model performs worse than the benchmark. The vector autoregression model performs better than the benchmark only in the one-step forecast. These results indicate that incorporating preliminary data may not be useful in forecasting the revised data.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840122370
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2001)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 721-726

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:6:p:721-726

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20

    Order Information:
    Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RAEC20

    Related research

    Keywords:

    References

    No references listed on IDEAS
    You can help add them by filling out this form.

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:33:y:2001:i:6:p:721-726. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.