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Modelling The German Yield Curve And Testing The Lucas Critique, 1975-2001

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Author Info
SANTOS, Carlos ()
OLIVEIRA, Maria Alberta

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Abstract

In this paper, we build a model for the yield curve in Germany, from 1975 to 2001, and use it to test the Lucas Critique. We provide a first application of the new general-to-specific automatic model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets to term structure odeling, and use new super exogeneity tests.. Super exogeneity is rejected, so the model is vulnerable to the Lucas Critique. Inflation was not retained in the model selected for the spread, suggesting that inflation expectations are not relevant (for the short maturities considered) to forward interest rate movements.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:
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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:1_5

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Related research
Keywords: Super exogeneity; Lucas Critique; Term Structure; General-to-Specific;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Determination of Interest Rates; Term Structure of Interest Rates
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

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  2. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets," European Financial Management, Blackwell Publishing Ltd, vol. 10(3), pages 487-509. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Arusha Cooray, 2003. "A test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates for Sri Lanka," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(17), pages 1819-1827, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Alogoskoufis, George S & Smith, Ron, 1991. "The Phillips Curve, the Persistence of Inflation, and the Lucas Critique: Evidence from Exchange-Rate Regimes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1254-75, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. David F. Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2004. "Regression Models with Data-based Indicator Variables," Economics Papers 2004-W04, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
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  18. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 667, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Peter A.G. VanBergeijk & Jan Marc Berk, . "The Lucas Critique in Practice: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of European Monetary Integration on the Term Structure," IEW - Working Papers iewwp082, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW. [Downloadable!]
  22. Modigliani, Franco & Shiller, Robert J, 1973. "Inflation, Rational Expectations and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 40(157), pages 12-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Jan Marc Berk & Peter A.G. Vanbergeijk, 2000. "Is the yield curve a useful information variable for the Eurosystem?," Working Paper Series 11, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  25. Jesper Linde, 2001. "Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 986-1005, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1996. "On the power of tests for superexogeneity and structural invariance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1-2), pages 151-175. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Santos & David Hendry, 2006. "Saturation in Autoregressive Models," Notas Económicas, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra, issue 24, pages 8-19, December. [Downloadable!]
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