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How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment

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  • Barrell, Ray
  • Pina, Alvaro M.

Abstract

In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking multi-country macroeconomic model, NiGEM, comprising individual blocks for 10 Euroland economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 21 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 1-35

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:21:y:2004:i:1:p:1-35

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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References

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  1. Brown, Bryan W & Mariano, Roberto S, 1984. "Residual-Based Procedures for Prediction and Estimation in a Nonlinear Simultaneous System," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 321-43, March.
  2. Ray Barrell & Ian Hurst & Álvaro Pina, 2002. "Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output," Working Papers Department of Economics 2002/05, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  3. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-79, June.
  4. Paula De Masi, 1997. "IMF Estimates of Potential Output: Theory and Practice," IMF Working Papers 97/177, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-85, July.
  7. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, October.
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Charles Wyplosz, 1998. "The Stability Pact: more than a minor nuisance?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 65-113, 04.
  9. Peter Brandner & Leopold Diebalek & Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union," Working Papers 26, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  10. Ray Barrell & Dirk Willem te Velde, 2002. "European Integration and Manufactures Import Demand: An Empirical Investigation of Ten European Countries," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(3), pages 263-293, 08.
  11. Claude Giorno & Pete Richardson & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1995. "Estimating Potential Output, Output Gaps and Structural Budget Balances," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 152, OECD Publishing.
  12. Ray C. Fair & John B. Taylor, 1991. "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations," NBER Technical Working Papers 0078, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Alberto Alesina & Tamim Bayoumi, 1996. "The Costs and Benefits of Fiscal Rules: Evidence from U.S. States," NBER Working Papers 5614, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
  15. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hüseyin SEN & Ayse KAYA, 2013. "The Role of Taxes as an Automatic Stabilizer: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP), Queensland University of Technology (QUT), School of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(3), pages 303-313, December.
  2. Jaakko Kiander & Matti Virén, 2000. "Do automatic stabilisers take care of asymmetric shocks in the euro area?," Discussion Papers 234, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  3. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Automatic Stabilisation, Discretionary Policy and the Stability Pact," Sciences Po publications 2008-15, Sciences Po.
  4. Maria Antoinette Silgoner & Jesús Crespo-Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2003. "The Fiscal Smile: The Effectiveness and Limits of Fiscal Stabilizers," IMF Working Papers 03/182, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Dinga, Emil & Ionescu, Cornel & Padurean, Elena, 2010. "Discretionary Policy versus Non-Discretionary Policy in the Economic Adjustment Process," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 184-207, December.
  6. Dury, K. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "Fiscal Policy in EMU: Simulating the Operation of the Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers eco2000/3, European University Institute.
  7. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective Of the New Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-709, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  8. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2013. "The role of automatic stabilizers in the U.S. business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 9454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Hiebert, Paul & Pérez, Javier J. & Rostagno, Massimo, 2009. "The trade-off between public debt reduction and automatic stabilisation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 464-472, March.
  10. Breuss, Fritz & Roeger, Werner, 2005. "The SGP fiscal rule in the case of sluggish growth: Simulations with the QUEST model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 767-788, October.
  11. Barrell, Ray & Becker, Bettina & Byrne, Joseph & Gottschalk, Sylvia & Hurst, Ian & van Welsum, Desiree, 2004. "Macroeconomic policy in Europe: experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 877-931, September.
  12. Dag Kolsrud, 2008. "Stochastic Ceteris Paribus Simulations," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 21-43, February.
  13. Szapáry, György & Orbán, Gábor, 2004. "A stabilitási és növekedési paktum az új tagállamok szemszögéből
    [The Stabilization and Growth Pact in the light of the new EU member-states]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 810-831.
  14. Maria Silgoner & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Gerhard Reitschuler, 2004. "The fiscal smile - on the effectiveness and limits of fiscal stabilizers," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6152 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Javier Andrés & Rafael Doménech, 2006. "Fiscal Rules and Macroeconomic Stability," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 176(1), pages 9-41, April.

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