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Do automatic stabilisers take care of asymmetric shocks in the euro area?

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  • Jaakko Kiander
  • Matti Virén
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    Abstract

    This paper deals with the question whether the automatic fiscal stabilisers are strong enough to solve the problem of asymmetric shocks in the Euro area. The question is important for many reasons, for instance in terms of policy coordination and fiscal federalism. The paper reviews the current estimates of automatic stabilisers and structural deficits published by the EU, IMF and OECD. The differences between the countries as well as the stability and consistency of the estimated measures is scrutinised. In addition to this, we present also out own estimation results on the working of the automatic stabilisers and runs sensitivity analyses for EU countries to see, how likely the countries are to violate the Maastricht deficit criterion if they face country-specific output or export shocks or interest-rate shocks.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT) in its series Discussion Papers with number 234.

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    Date of creation: 01 Dec 2000
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    Handle: RePEc:fer:dpaper:234

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    Related research

    Keywords: Fiscal Policy; structural deficits; monetary union;

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    References

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    1. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dury, K. & Pina, A.M., 2000. "Fiscal Policy in EMU: Simulating the Operation of the Stability Pact," Economics Working Papers eco2000/3, European University Institute.
    3. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Fiscal Federalism and Optimum Currency Areas: Evidence for Europe From the United States," NBER Working Papers 3855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Darrel Cohen & Glenn Follette, 1999. "The automatic fiscal stabilizers: quietly doing their thing," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Olivier Jean Blanchard, 1990. "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 79, OECD Publishing.
    6. Barrell, Ray & Pina, Alvaro M., 2004. "How important are automatic stabilisers in Europe? A stochastic simulation assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-35, January.
    7. Buti, Marco & Franco, Daniele & Ongena, Hedwig, 1998. "Fiscal Discipline and Flexibility in EMU: The Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(3), pages 81-97, Autumn.
    8. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Working Papers 3372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 1999. "Government Size and Automatic Stabilizers: International and Intranational Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2259, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Tanzi, Vito & Schuknecht, Ludger, 1997. "Reconsidering the Fiscal Role of Government: The International Perspective," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 164-68, May.
    11. Willi Leibfritz & Deborah Roseveare & Paul van den Noord, 1994. "Fiscal Policy, Government Debt and Economic Performance," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 144, OECD Publishing.
    12. Erkki Koskela & Matti Virén, 1999. "Is There a Laffer Curve Between Output and Public Sector Employment?," Discussion Papers 194, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    13. Matti Virén, 1998. "Do the OECD Countries Follow the Same Fiscal Policy Rule?," Discussion Papers 186, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
    14. Thomas Dalsgaard & Alain de Serres, 1999. "Estimating Prudent Budgetary Margins for 11 EU Countries: A Simulated SVAR Model Approach," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 216, OECD Publishing.
    15. Blinder, Alan S. & Solow, Robert M., 1973. "Does fiscal policy matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 319-337.
    16. Maurice Obstfeld & Giovanni Peri, 1998. "Regional non-adjustment and fiscal policy," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 205-259, 04.
    17. Peter Brandner & Leopold Diebalek & Helene Schuberth, 1998. "Structural Budget Deficits and Sustainability of Fiscal Positions in the European Union," Working Papers 26, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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    Cited by:
    1. Kerstin Bernoth & Andrew Hughes Hallet & John Lewis, 2008. "Did fiscal policy makers know what they were doing? Reassessing fiscal policy with real-time data," DNB Working Papers 169, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    2. Gábor Orbán & György Szapáry, 2004. "The Stability and Growth Pact from the Perspective Of the New Member States," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-709, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    3. VirÉn, Matti, 2000. "Fiscal Policy, Automatic Stabilisers and Policy Coordination in EMU," Discussion Papers 744, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

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