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Estimating A Model Of Inflation In Tajikistan

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  • Zavkidjon Zavkiev

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    Abstract

    This paper attempts to estimate a model of inflation in Tajikistan using the Johanson cointegration approach and single equation error correction model. It also develops a methodology for creating monthly real output series. The paper investigates both the short run dynamic behaviour of inflation and the long run relationship of prices with their determinants. There is evidence that in the long run prices are determined by exchange rate, money, real output and interest rates, and in the short run by values of money growth and inflation, and current and past values of output growth and interest rate changes. The speed of adjustment of prices to their long run equilibria is determined. The results suggest controlling excessive money growth and stabilizing excessive exchange rate fluctuations should be the key ingredients of monetary policy in controlling inflation of the country.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-27.

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    Length: 51 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2005-27

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    1. Tim Callen & Dongkoo Chang, 1999. "Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India," IMF Working Papers 99/119, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttila, Jukka, 2004. "Money, barter, and inflation in Russia," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 297-314, June.
    3. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, Octomber.
    4. Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
    5. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling inflation in Australia," International Finance Discussion Papers 530, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
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    8. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004. "Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465.
    9. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
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    12. Durevall, Dick, 1998. "The Dynamics of Chronic Inflation in Brazil, 1968-1985," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 423-32, October.
    13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    14. Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modeling inflation in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 375-385, August.
    15. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    16. Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
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