Estimating A Model Of Inflation In Tajikistan
AbstractThis paper attempts to estimate a model of inflation in Tajikistan using the Johanson cointegration approach and single equation error correction model. It also develops a methodology for creating monthly real output series. The paper investigates both the short run dynamic behaviour of inflation and the long run relationship of prices with their determinants. There is evidence that in the long run prices are determined by exchange rate, money, real output and interest rates, and in the short run by values of money growth and inflation, and current and past values of output growth and interest rate changes. The speed of adjustment of prices to their long run equilibria is determined. The results suggest controlling excessive money growth and stabilizing excessive exchange rate fluctuations should be the key ingredients of monetary policy in controlling inflation of the country.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2005-27.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Crawford Building, Lennox Crossing, Building #132, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data,"
78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2004.
"Identifying, estimating and testing restricted cointegrated systems: An overview,"
Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 58(4), pages 440-465.
- H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen Doornik, 2003. "Identifying, Estimating and Testing Restricted Cointegrated Systems: An Overview," Economics Papers 2003-W10, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990.
"Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
- Hsiao Chiying & Chen Pu, 2004. "Testing Weak Exogeneity in Cointegrated System," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 537, Econometric Society.
- Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttila, Jukka, 2004.
"Money, barter, and inflation in Russia,"
Journal of Comparative Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 297-314, June.
- Kim, Byung-Yeon & Pirttilä, Jukka & Rautava, Jouko, 2001. "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 15/2001, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
- Byung-Yeon Kim & Jukka Pirttilä & Jouko Rautava, 2002. "Money, Barter and Inflation in Russia," Macroeconomics 0209009, EconWPA.
- Angel J. Ubide, 1997. "Determinants of Inflation in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 97/145, International Monetary Fund.
- Hasan, Mohammad S., 1999. "Monetary Growth and Inflation in China: A Reexamination," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 669-685, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Durevall, Dick, 1998. "The Dynamics of Chronic Inflation in Brazil, 1968-1985," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 423-32, October.
- Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Welfe, Aleksander, 2000. "Modeling inflation in Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 375-385, August.
- Jurgen Doornik & H. Peter Boswijk, 2003. "Identifying, Estimating and Testing Restricted Cointegrated Systems: An Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W10, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995.
"Modelling Inflation in Australia,"
RBA Research Discussion Papers
rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.