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A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India

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  • Muneesh Kapur
  • Michael Debabrata Patra

Abstract

A New Keynesian model estimated for India yields valuable insights. Aggregate demand reacts to interest rate changes with a lag of at least three quarters, with inflation taking seven quarters to respond. Inflation is inertial and persistent when it sets in, irrespective of the source. Exchange rate pass-through to domestic inflation is low. Inflation turns out to be the dominant focus of monetary policy, accompanied by a strong commitment to the stabilization of output. Recent policy actions have raised the effective policy rate, but the estimated neutral policy rate suggests some further tightening to normalize the policy stance.

Suggested Citation

  • Muneesh Kapur & Michael Debabrata Patra, 2010. "A Monetary Policy Model Without Money for India," IMF Working Papers 2010/183, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/183
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    Cited by:

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    3. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "Are there Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy in India?," MPRA Paper 53059, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Pulapre Balakrishnan & M Parameswaran, 2019. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation in India," Working Papers 16, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    5. Yanamandra, Venkataramana, 2015. "Exchange rate changes and inflation in India: What is the extent of exchange rate pass-through to imports?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 57-68.
    6. Khundrakpam, Jeevan Kumar, 2013. "A Note on Differential Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply and Policy Rate Shocks in India," MPRA Paper 53058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2011. "India: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for India," IMF Staff Country Reports 2011/050, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Abhijit Sen Gupta & Rajeswari Sengupta, 2016. "Is India Ready for Inflation Targeting?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 479-509, September.
    9. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Sahu, Sohini & Jha, Saakshi, 2016. "Estimation of Unobserved Inflation Expectations in India using State-Space Model," MPRA Paper 72710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam, 2017. "Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(3), pages 290-314, August.
    11. Josheski Dushko & Eftimoski Dimitar, 2016. "Application of Is-Mp-Ia Model and Taylor Rule to Cesee Economies," Economics and Culture, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 5-13, June.
    12. Shesadri Banerjee & Harendra Behera, 2023. "Financial frictions, bank intermediation and monetary policy transmission in India," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 749-785, July.
    13. Pranjul Bhandari & Jeffrey Frankel, 2014. "The Best of Rules and Discretion: A Case for Nominal GDP Targeting in India," CID Working Papers 284, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    14. Pulapre Balakrishnan & M. Parameswaran, 2021. "Modelling Inflation in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 555-581, September.
    15. repec:dgr:rugsom:12011-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Bhandari, Pranjul & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2017. "Nominal GDP targeting for developing countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 491-506.
    17. Pulapre Balakrishnan & M. Parameswaran, 2019. "Modeling the Dynamics of Inflation in India," Working Papers 1023, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    18. Samarina, A.., 2012. "Monetary targeting and financial system characteristics," Research Report 12011-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    19. Kamal, Khnd. Md. Mostafa, 2014. "Impact of Imported Intermediate Goods on Inflation Dynamics: Evidence from India," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(04), pages 53-63, December.
    20. Rahul Anand & Ding Ding & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2014. "Food Inflation in India: The Role for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2014/178, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Bhattacharya, Rudrani, 2023. "Does Monetary Policy in India Anchor Inflation Expectation?," Working Papers 23/395, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.

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