Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through
AbstractMacroeconomic consequences of a large currency depreciation among the crisis-hit Asian economies had varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar in most Asian countries, including Thailand and Korea, after the exchange rate depreciated during the crisis. Indonesia, however, suffered very high inflation following a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. As a result, price competitive advantage by the rupiah depreciation was lost in the real exchange rate terms. The objective of this paper is to examine the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a VAR analysis. Main results are as follows: (1) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit economies; (2) the pass-through to CPI was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia: and (3) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks are positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia%u2019s accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of the CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the spiraling effects of domestic price inflation and sharp nominal exchange rate depreciation in the post-crisis period.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12395.
Date of creation: Jul 2006
Date of revision:
Note: EFG IFM
Contact details of provider:
Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-406, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2006. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: VAR Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Discussion papers 06018, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
- F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2006-08-12 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2006-08-12 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2006-08-12 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-IFN-2006-08-12 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2006-08-12 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2006-08-12 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- José M. Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & José M. González-Mínguez, 2005.
"Exchange rate pass through to import prices in the euro area,"
Banco de Espaï¿½a Working Papers
0538, Banco de Espa�a.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & Jose M. Gonzalez-Minguez, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices in the Euro area," Staff Reports 219, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg & José M. González-Mínguez, 2005. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," NBER Working Papers 11632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S. & Gonzalez-Minguez, Jose M., 2005. "Exchange-rate pass-through to import prices in the euro area," IESE Research Papers D/609, IESE Business School.
- Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S & González Mìnguez, Jose Manuel, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 5347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998.
"How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?,"
Journal of the Japanese and International Economies,
Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
- Feenstra, Robert C., 1989.
"Symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates under imperfect competition: An empirical test,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 25-45, August.
- Robert C. Feenstra, 1987. "Symmetric Pass-Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates Under Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test," NBER Working Papers 2453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
- Linda S. Goldberg & José Manuel Campa, 2006.
"Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs, and the Sensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
12121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Goldberg, Linda S. & Campa, Jose M., 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the insensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," IESE Research Papers D/625, IESE Business School.
- Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2006. "Distribution margins, imported inputs, and the sensitivity of the CPI to exchange rates," Staff Reports 247, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Campa, José Manuel & Goldberg, Linda S, 2006. "Distribution Margins, Imported Inputs and the Insensitivity of the CPI to Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 5650, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Todd E. Clark, 1999.
"The Responses Of Prices At Different Stages Of Production To Monetary Policy Shocks,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 420-433, August.
- Todd E. Clark, 1996. "The responses of prices at different stages of production to monetary policy shocks," Research Working Paper 96-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Ross McLeod, 2002.
"Toward Improved Monetary Policy in Indonesia,"
Departmental Working Papers
2002-10, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Euro Area: The Role of Asymmetric Pricing Behavior," IMF Working Papers 04/14, International Monetary Fund.
- Hahn, Elke, 2003. "Pass-through of external shocks to euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 0243, European Central Bank.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005.
"Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2000. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," Discussion Papers in Economics 00/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2002.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
- J. McCarthy, 1999.
"Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialised economies,"
BIS Working Papers
79, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2007. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Import Prices to Domestic Inflation in Some Industrialized Economies," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 511-537, Fall.
- Jonathan McCarthy, 2000. "Pass-through of exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in some industrialized economies," Staff Reports 111, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Giovanni P. Olivei, 2002. "Exchange rates and the prices of manufacturing products imported into the United States," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Q 1, pages 3 - 18.
- Kenichi Ohno, 1989. "Export Pricing Behavior of Manufacturing: A U.S.: Japan Comparison," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(3), pages 550-579, September.
- Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
- Knetter, Michael M, 1989. "Price Discrimination by U.S. and German Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 198-210, March.
- Hardiyanto, A.V., 2007. "Daily Rp/USD stochastic volatility and the policy implication lesson," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 237-256, February.
- Antonio Forte, 2009.
"The pass-through effect: a twofold analysis,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI_RP_2009_08, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander, 2010.
"Toward a Taylor rule for fiscal policy,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2010,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Qin, Duo & Tan, Tao, 2009.
"How much intraregional exchange rate variability could a currency union remove? The case of ASEAN+3,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1793-1803, October.
- Duo Qin & Tao Tan, 2008. "How Much Intraregional Exchange Rate Variability Could a Currency Union Remove? The Case of ASEAN+3," Working Papers 631, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2010.
"Determination of inflation in an open economy Phillips curve framework: the case of developed and developing Asian countries,"
Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 33-51.
- Pami Dua & Upasna Gaur, 2009. "Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework-- The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries," Working papers 178, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
- Pami Dua & Gaur Upasna, 2009. "Determination of Inflation in an Open Economy Phillips Curve Framework: The Case of Developed and Developing Asian Countries," Working Papers id:1973, eSocialSciences.
- Joel Rodrigue, 2013.
"Online Appendix to "Multinational Production, Exports and Aggregate Productivity","
12-23, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Joel Rodrigue, 2014. "Multinational Production, Exports and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 243-261, April.
- Liew, Freddy, 2012. "Forecasting inflation in Asian economies," MPRA Paper 36781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos Cortinhas, 2007.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through in ASEAN: Implications for the Prospects of Monetary Integration in the Region,"
NIPE Working Papers
2/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Carlos Cortinhas, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through In Asean: Implications For The Prospects Of Monetary Integration In The Region," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 54(04), pages 657-687.
- Craig R. Parsons & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "New estimates of exchange rate pass-through in Japanese exports An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 10th International Convention of the East Asian Economic Association in Beijing, C," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 174-183.
- Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky, 2013.
"Online Appendix to "Toward a Taylor Rule for Fiscal Policy","
12-15, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Sek, Siok Kun & Kapsalyamova, Zhanna, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through and volatility: Impacts on domestic prices in four Asian countries," MPRA Paper 11130, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 26 Oct 2008.
- Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2008. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging market economies: what has changed and why?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 103-130 Bank for International Settlements.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ().
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.