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Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post-Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass-Through

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  • TAKATOSHI ITO
  • KIYOTAKA SATO

Abstract

Macro-economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis-hit Asian economies varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar after the Asian currency crisis of 1997-98 in most crisis-hit countries except Indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. The high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage, a key for economic recovery from a crisis. This paper examines the pass-through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis. The main results are as follows: (i) the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import prices was quite high in the crisis-hit economies; (ii) the pass-through to Consumer Price Index (CPI) was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia; and (iii) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks were positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation-depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis. Copyright (c) 2008 The Ohio State University.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 40 (2008)
Issue (Month): 7 (October)
Pages: 1407-1438

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:40:y:2008:i:7:p:1407-1438

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Waël Louhichi, 2014. "Measuring the Impact of Exchange Rate Movements on Domestic Prices: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis," FIW Working Paper series 131, FIW.
  2. Aron, Janine & Farrell, Greg & Muellbauer, John & Sinclair, Peter, 2010. "Exchange Rate Pass-through and Monetary Policy in South Africa," CEPR Discussion Papers 8153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Jiang, Jiadan & Kim, David, 2013. "Exchange rate pass-through to inflation in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 900-912.
  4. Lin, Po-Chun & Wu, Chung-Shu, 2012. "Exchange rate pass-through in deflation: The case of Taiwan," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 101-111.
  5. Biing-Shen Kuo & Su-Ling Peng, 2011. "Price Pass-Through, Household Expenditure, and Industrial Structure: The Case of Taiwan," NBER Chapters, in: Commodity Prices and Markets, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 20, pages 237-255 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. María Lorena Marí del Cristo & Marta Gómez-Puig, 2012. "“Pass-through in dollarized countries: should Ecuador abandon the U.S. Dollar?”," IREA Working Papers 201216, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2012.
  7. Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, 2013. "Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in the Euro Area: A Cointegrated VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 51162, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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