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Evaluating inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective for India

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  • Mishra, Ankita
  • Mishra, Vinod

Abstract

This study formulates a small open economy model for India with exchange rate as a prominent channel of monetary policy. The model is estimated using the Instrumental Variable-Generalized Methods of Moments (IV-GMM) estimator and evaluated through simulations. This study compares different cases of domestic and CPI inflation targeting, strict and flexible inflation targeting, and simple Taylor type rules. The analysis highlights the unsuitability of simple Taylor-type monetary rules in stabilizing the Indian economy and suggests that discretionary optimization works better in stabilizing this economy. There seems to be a trade-off between output gap stabilization and exchange rate stabilization in flexible domestic inflation targeting and CPI inflation targeting respectively. However, flexible domestic inflation targeting seems a better alternative from an overall macro stabilization perspective in India where financial markets are still not sufficiently integrated to ensure quick transmission of interest rate impulses and existence of rigidities in the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 29 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 1053-1063

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1053-1063

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: India; Inflation targeting; CPI; Taylor's rule; Monetary policy;

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References

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  1. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Eduardo Moron & Diego Winkelried, 2002. "Monetary Policy Rules for Financially Vulnerable EconomieEd," Macroeconomics 0205001, EconWPA.
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  4. Raghbendra Jha, 2008. "Inflation targeting in India: issues and prospects," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 259-270.
  5. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Nonstandard Indicators for Monetary Policy: Can Their Usefulness Be Judged from Forecasting Regressions?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 95-115 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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  9. Ashima Goyal, 2008. "The Structure of Inflation, Information and Labour Markets - Implications for monetary policy," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22378, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  10. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Optimal Monetary Policy in Closed versus Open Economies: An Integrated Approach," NBER Working Papers 8604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Goyal, Ashima, 2011. "A general equilibrium open economy model for emerging markets: Monetary policy with a dualistic labor market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1392-1404, May.
  12. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ball, Laurence, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
  14. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Ashima Goyal, 2006. "Incentives from exchange rate regimes in an institutional context," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2006-015r, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  16. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  17. Carl E. Walsh, 2009. "Inflation Targeting: What Have We Learned?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(2), pages 195-233, 08.
  18. Ankita Mishra & Vinod Mishra, 2010. "A VAR Model of Monetary Policy and Hypothetical Case of Inflation Targeting in India," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 15-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  19. Jordi Gal� & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
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Cited by:
  1. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2013. "Inflation and interest rates in the presence of a cost channel, wealth effect and agent heterogeneity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 286-296.

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