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On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth

Author

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  • Gómez-Puig, Marta
  • Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón
  • Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada

Abstract

We use panel data for 115 countries over the period 1995–2016 to model the heterogeneity of the debt-growth nexus along with the underlying factors that might explain it. The grouped fixed effect (GFE) estimator is used to endogenously classify countries into groups and a multinomial logit model is employed to explore the drivers of the detected heterogeneity. The GFE estimator classifies countries into five groups for which debt has different impacts on growth. According to our results, the likelihood of a strong impact is moderated by the quality of the institutions and the proportion of productive expenditure but intensified by the level of indebtedness and the maturity of the debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s1042443122000208
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101528
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Economic growth; Heterogeneity; Grouped fixed effects; Panel data; Multinomial logit regression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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