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Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A Panel VAR analysis

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  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Malinen, Tuomas

Abstract

We estimate a panel vector autoregressive model to analyze the highly disputed relationship between debt and growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect on debt to growth, even for higher levels of sovereign debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth to debt, which explains the negative correlation.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 52039.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:52039

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Keywords: Public debt; debt share; GDP growth;

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  1. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers halshs-00700471, HAL.
  2. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2013. "Aid and income: Another time-series perspective," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," NBER Working Papers 15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," Scholarly Articles 11129154, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
  7. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  8. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1450, European Central Bank.
  9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  10. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  11. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper Series 13_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  2. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Tania Treibich, 2014. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Sciences Po publications 2014-05, Sciences Po.

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