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Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis

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  • Lof, Matthijs
  • Malinen, Tuomas

Abstract

We estimate panel vector autoregressions to analyze the highly disputed relationship between sovereign debt and economic growth. Using data on 20 developed countries, we find no evidence for a robust effect of debt on growth, even for higher levels of debt. We do find a significant negative reverse effect of growth on debt, which explains the negative correlation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 122 (2014)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 403-407

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:403-407

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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Keywords: Public debt; Debt share; GDP growth;

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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 7661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Lof, Matthijs & Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh & Tarp, Finn, 2013. "Aid and income: Another time-series perspective," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Alexandru Minea & Antoine Parent, 2012. "Is High Public Debt Always Harmful to Economic Growth? Reinhart and Rogoff and some complex nonlinearities," Working Papers 12-08, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
  4. Baum, Anja & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "Debt and growth: new evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 1450, European Central Bank.
  5. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
  6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
  7. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Newey, Whitney & Rosen, Harvey S, 1988. "Estimating Vector Autoregressions with Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1371-95, November.
  8. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013. "Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff," Working Papers wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  9. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  10. Caldara, Dario & Kamps, Christophe, 2008. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks? A VAR-based comparative analysis," Working Paper Series 0877, European Central Bank.
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Cited by:
  1. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2014. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies," INET Research Notes 40, Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET).
  2. Costas Milas, 2014. "Financial Stress and the Impact of Public Debt on UK Growth in High versus Low-Growth Regimes: 1850-2013," Working Paper Series 13_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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