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Long-Run Effect Of A Disaster: Case Study On The Kobe Earthquake

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  • YASUHIDE OKUYAMA

    (Graduate School of Social System Studies, University of Kitakyushu, 4-2-1 Kitagata, Kokuraminami-ku, Kitakyushu 802-8577, Japan)

Abstract

In 1995, the Kobe earthquake occurred in the second largest economic region of Japan, and its economic damages were accounted around 10 trillion yen. This paper presents an empirical investigation of long-run economic effects of the event based on a time-series data. The results indicate that the event had created statistically significant deviations from the pre-earthquake growth path of Kobe. In addition, the comparison with the projected pre-event growth path revealed that the long-run effects have resulted in a steady decline of per capita GRP, while the short-run impacts led to some positive impacts from recovery and reconstruction during the first several years.

Suggested Citation

  • Yasuhide Okuyama, 2016. "Long-Run Effect Of A Disaster: Case Study On The Kobe Earthquake," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-18, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:01:n:s0217590816400099
    DOI: 10.1142/S0217590816400099
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    Cited by:

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    2. Yan Song & Zhenran Li & Xiao Zhang & Ming Zhang, 2021. "Study on indirect economic impacts and their causes of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(2), pages 1971-1995, September.
    3. Toshihisa TOYODA, 2017. "Toward a Long-term Economic Damage Reduction from an Urban Disaster: Lessons from the 1995 Kobe Earthquake," GSICS Working Paper Series 32, Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies, Kobe University.
    4. Yasuhide Okuyama, 2015. "How shaky was the regional economy after the 1995 Kobe earthquake? A multiplicative decomposition analysis of disaster impact," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 55(2), pages 289-312, December.
    5. Pengyu Chen, 2022. "Analysis of the post-earthquake economic recovery of the most severely affected areas in the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2633-2655, December.

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