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Impact estimation of disasters : a global aggregate for 1960 to 2007

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  • Okuyama, Yasuhide
  • Sahin, Sebnem

Abstract

This paper aims to estimate the global aggregate of disaster impacts during 1960 to 2007 using Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) methodology. The authors selected 184 major disasters in terms of the size of economic damages, based on the data available from the International Emergency Disasters and MunichRe (NatCat) databases for natural catastrophes. They estimate the losses and total impacts including the higher-order effects of these disasters using social accounting matrices constructed for this study. Although the aggregate damages based on the data amount to US$742 billion, the aggregate losses and total impacts are estimated at US$360 billion and US$678 billion, respectively. The results show a growing trend of economic impacts over time in absolute value. However, once the data and estimates are normalized using global gross domestic product, the historical trend of total impacts becomes statistically insignificant. The visual observation confirms the inverted ‘U’ curve distribution between total impact and income level, while statistical analyses indicate negative linear relationships between them for climatological, geophysical, and especially hydrological events.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 4963.

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Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4963

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Keywords: Natural Disasters; Hazard Risk Management; Disaster Management; Economic Theory&Research; Pollution Management&Control;

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  1. Donald R. Davis & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "A Search for Multiple Equilibria in Urban Industrial Structure," NBER Working Papers 10252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Kellenberg, Derek K. & Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq, 2008. "Does rising income increase or decrease damage risk from natural disasters?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 788-802, May.
  3. Albala-Bertrand, J. M., 1993. "Political Economy of Large Natural Disasters: With Special Reference to Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780198287650, October.
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Cited by:
  1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G. & Lazzaroni, S., 2013. "Macroeconomics of natural disasters," ISS Working Papers - General Series, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague 50075, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  2. Carlo Giupponi & Vahid Mojtahed & Animesh K. Gain & Stefano Balbi, 2013. "Integrated Assessment of Natural Hazards and Climate Change Adaptation: I. The KULTURisk Methodological Framework," Working Papers 2013:06, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  3. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre 1001, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.

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