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Going Deeper Into the Link Between the Labour Market and Inflation

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  • Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho

Abstract

The unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched economic indicators. However, it has important limitations and shortcomings as a measure of the state of the labour market. This could help to explain the fact that in traditional Phillips curves unemployment explains but a small part of inflation. This paper tries to mitigate such problems going deeper into labour market indicators. With that aim alternative unemployment rates are built and assessed, along with disaggregated unemployment rates and other labour market indicators. The evidence shows that some of those indicators have considerably greater explanatory power over inflation than the traditional unemployment rate and, therefore, should be followed closely by policymakers.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps279.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 279.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:279

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
  3. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, September.
  4. Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1998. "Unemployment and Labor Force Attachment: A Multistate Analysis of Nonemployment," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Statistics Measurement Issues, pages 123-155 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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