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A Note on Particle Filters Applied to DSGE Models

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  • Angelo Marsiglia Fasolo

Abstract

This paper compares the properties of two particle filters – the Bootstrap Filter and the Auxiliary Particle Filter – applied to the computation of the likelihood of artificial data simulated from a basic DSGE model with nominal and real rigidities. Particle filters are compared in terms of speed, quality of the approximation of the probability density function of data and tracking of state variables. Results show that there is a case for the use of the Auxiliary Particle Filter only when the researcher uses a large number of observable variables and the number of particles used to characterize the likelihood is relatively low. Simulations also show that the largest gains in tracking state variables in the model are found when the number of particles is between 20,000 and 30,000, suggesting a boundary for this number.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps281.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 281.

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Date of creation: Jun 2012
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:281

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Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Fabia A. de Carvalho, 2012. "Uma Breve Análise de Medidas Alternativas à Mediana na Pesquisa de Expectativas de Inflação do Banco Central do Brasil," Working Papers Series 264, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 185, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  3. Leonardo S. Alencar, 2011. "Um Exame sobre como os Bancos Ajustam seu Índice de Basileia no Brasil," Working Papers Series 251, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  4. Flury, Thomas & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Bayesian Inference Based Only On Simulated Likelihood: Particle Filter Analysis Of Dynamic Economic Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(05), pages 933-956, October.
  5. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Barbachan, José Fajardo & Farias, Aquiles Rocha de, 2012. "Estimating Relative Risk Aversion, Risk-Neutral and Real-World Densities using Brazilian Real Currency Options," EBAPE Working Papers 1, School of Public and Business Administration, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  6. Lycia M. G. Araujo & Guilherme M. R. Gomes & Solange M. Guerra & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2011. "Comparação da Eficiência de Custo para BRICs e América Latina," Working Papers Series 252, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Eduardo Luis Lundberg, 2011. "Bancos Oficiais e Crédito Direcionado – o que diferencia o mercado de crédito brasileiro?," Working Papers Series 258, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  8. Benjamin M. Tabak & Dimas M. Fazio & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2011. "The Relationship Between Banking Market Competition and Risk-taking: Do Size and Capitalization Matter?," Working Papers Series 261, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  9. Marta Areosa & Waldyr Areosa & Vinicius Carrasco, 2010. "A Sticky-Dispersed Information Phillips Curve: A model with partial and delayed information," Textos para discussão 565, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  10. Pierre-Richard Agénor & K. Alper & L. Pereira da Silva, 2012. "Sudden Floods, Prudential Regulation and Stability in an Open Economy," Working Papers Series 267, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  11. Arnildo da Silva Correa & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves & Antonio Carlos Magalhães da Silva, 2011. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: an empirical investigation of Brazilian retail loans," Working Papers Series 260, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  12. Angelo M. Fasolo, 2011. "The Accuracy of Perturbation Methods to Solve Small Open Economy Models," Working Papers Series 262, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2012. "Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle," Working Papers Series 277, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
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