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On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials

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  • MacDonald, Ronald
  • Nagayasu, Jun

Abstract

In this paper the short- and long-run movements of the Japanese yen-US dollar exchange rate are modelled for the recent floating period. The modern general-to-specific approach is used as our econometric framework. In contrast to some other exchange rate studies, we interpret multiple cointegrating vectors using economic theory. Among the findings are sensible and significant long-run relationships, and dynamic equations which describe the movements of the exchange rate and satisfy a battery of diagnostic tests. The models are shown to produce good in-sample forecasting performance and also out-of-sample forecasting performance which dominates a random walk.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 12 (1998)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 75-102

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:12:y:1998:i:1:p:75-102

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

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Cited by:
  1. Dimitris Hatzinikolaou & Metodey Polasek, 2005. "The commodity-currency view of the Australian dollar: A multivariate cointegration approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 81-99, May.
  2. Schnabl, Gunther, 2001. "Weak economy and strong currency: The origins of the strong yen in the 1990's," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 218, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  3. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2012. "Directional forecasting in financial time series using support vector machines: The USD/Euro exchange rate," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 5-2012, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  4. Atsushi Iimi, 2006. "Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Botswana," IMF Working Papers 06/140, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Shehu Usman Rano, Aliyu, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment: An Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) to Nigeria," MPRA Paper 10343, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Shehu Usman Rano Aliyu, 2010. "Exchange rate volatility and export trade in Nigeria: an empirical investigation," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(13), pages 1071-1084.
  7. Nagayasu, Jun, 2003. "Asymmetric effects of monetary indicators on the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 143-159, April.
  8. Urban, Dieter M., 2007. "Terms of trade, catch-up, and home-market effect: The example of Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 470-488, December.
  9. Njuguna S. Ndung'U & Rose W. Ngugi, 1999. "Adjustment and liberalization in Kenya: the financial and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 465-491.

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