Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Directional forecasting in financial time series using support vector machines: The USD/Euro exchange rate

Contents:

Author Info

  • Plakandaras, Vasilios

    ()
    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

  • Papadimitriou, Theophilos

    ()
    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

  • Gogas, Periklis

    ()
    (Democritus University of Thrace, Department of International Economic Relations and Development)

Abstract

In this paper, we present a novel machine learning based forecasting system of the EU/USD exchange rate directional changes. Specifically, we feed an overcomplete variable set to a Support Vector Machines (SVM) model and refine it through a Sensitivity Analysis process. The dataset spans from 1/1/1999 to 30/11/2011; the data of the last 7 months are reserved for out-of-sample testing. Results show that the proposed scheme outperforms various other machine learning methods treating similar scenarios.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://utopia.duth.gr/~pgkogkas/duthwp/5-2012.pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics in its series DUTH Research Papers in Economics with number 5-2012.

as in new window
Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 27 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:duthrp:2012_005

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University Campus, Komotini, 69100, Greece
Phone: (25310) 39.503
Fax: (25310) 39.502
Web page: http://www.econ.duth.gr/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Machine Learning; Support Vector Machines; Exchange Rates; Forecasting;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
  2. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  3. MacDonald, Ronald, 1997. "On the Japanese Yen-US Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," CEPR Discussion Papers 1639, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lance Taylor, 2004. "Exchange rate indeterminacy in portfolio balance, Mundell--Fleming and uncovered interest rate parity models," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 205-227, March.
  5. Shiyi Chen & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Kiho Jeong, 2010. "Forecasting volatility with support vector machine-based GARCH model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 406-433.
  6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  7. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Pragidis, Ioannis & Gogas, Periklis & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos, 2013. "Fiscal shocks and asymmetric effects: a comparative analysis," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 8-2013, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:duthrp:2012_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Periklis Gogas).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.