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Weak economy and strong currency: The origins of the strong yen in the 1990's

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  • Schnabl, Gunther

Abstract

During the 1990's the Japanese yen proved astonishingly strong despite the persisting recession. This paper tracks the origins of the high yen. It analyses the influence of interest rates, prices and foreign exchange policy on the yen-dollar exchange rate. It comes to the conclusion that real interest differentials can only explain shortterm exchange rate changes. Since prices have been exe rting their influence on the Japanese currency in the long run, the high yen is explained with deflation. The massive foreign exchange interventions of the 1990's were only able to stop the appreciation temporarily, if they were unsterilized, but they had no lasting effects. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics in its series Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge with number 218.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuedps:218

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Keywords: Yen; Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Japan;

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  1. Hung, Wansing & Kim, Yoonbai & Ohno, Kenichi, 1993. "Pricing exports: a cross-country study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-28, February.
  2. Jose De Gregorio & Alberto Giovannini & Holger C. Wolf, 1993. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," Working Papers 93-17, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  3. Ramana Ramaswamy & Hossein Samiei, 2000. "The Yen-Dollar Rate," IMF Working Papers 00/95, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Gunther Schnabl & Dirk Baur, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parity: Granger Causality Tests for the Yen- Dollar Exchange Rate," International Finance 0506006, EconWPA.
  5. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Jayant Menon, 1992. "Pricing to Market Behaviour and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Japanese Exports," Working Papers 1992.32, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
  6. de Menil, Georges, 1994. "Comments: International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation by J. De Gregorio, A. Giovannini and H.C. Wolf," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1250-1256, June.
  7. Kenneth A. Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994. "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 4952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  9. MacDonald, Ronald & Nagayasu, Jun, 1998. "On the Japanese Yen-U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate: A Structural Econometric Model Based on Real Interest Differentials," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 75-102, March.
  10. Ceglowski, Janet, 1996. "The Real Yen Exchange Rate and Japanese Productivity Growth," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(1), pages 54-63, February.
  11. Menon, Jayant, 1995. "The Relationship between the Law of One Price and Exchange Rate Pass-through," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 48(4), pages 551-568.
  12. Thomas F. Cargill & Michael M. Hutchison & Takatoshi Ito, 1997. "The Political Economy of Japanese Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262032473, December.
  13. Kenichi Ohno, 1990. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Pass-Through, and Market Share," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 294-310, June.
  14. Baillie, Richard T. & Osterberg, William P., 1997. "Why do central banks intervene?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 909-919, December.
  15. C. Randall Henning, 1994. "Currencies and Politics in the United States, Germany, and Japan," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 15.
  16. Menon, Jayant, 1995. " Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, June.
  17. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  18. Gordon, Robert J., 1994. "Comments : International evidence on tradables and nontradables inflation by J. De G regorio, A. Giovannini and H.C. Wolf," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1245-1249, June.
  19. Modigliani, Franco, 1988. "Reagan's Economic Policies: A Critique," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 397-426, September.
  20. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1985. "Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 1591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Gunther Schnabl, 2001. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 31-50, 01.
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Cited by:
  1. Baten, Jörg & Wallusch, Jacek, 2003. "Market integration and disintegration of Poland and Gemany [Germany] in the 18th century," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 268, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  2. Koepke, Nikola & Baten, Joerg, 2005. "The biological standard of living in Europe during the last two millennia," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 61-95, April.
  3. Manfred Stadler & Rüdiger Wapler, 2004. "Endogenous Skilled-biased Technological Change and Matching Unemployment," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 1-24, 01.
  4. Stadler, Manfred, 2003. "Innovation and growth: The role of labor-force qualification," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 255, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  5. Pitterle, Ingo & Steffen, Dirk, 2004. "Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes : The Role of the Scale Variable of Money Demand," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 284, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.

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