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Weak Economy and Strong Currency: The Origins of the Strong Yen in the 1990s

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  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

During the 1990s the Japanese yen proved astonishingly strong despite the persisting recession. This paper tracks the origins of the high yen. It analyses the influence of interest rates, prices and foreign exchange policy on the yen-dollar exchange rate. It comes to the conclusion that real interest differentials can only explain short-term exchange rate changes. Since prices have been exerting their influence on the Japanese currency in the long run, the high yen is explained with deflation. The massive foreign exchange interventions of the 1990s were only able to stop the appreciation temporarily, if they were unsterilized, but they had no lasting effects. Der Yen ist in der japanischen Rezession der 90er Jahre überraschend stark geblieben. Der Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen für den hohen Yen. Er analysiert den Einfluss von Zinsen, Preisen und Währungspolitik. Danach haben reale Zinsdifferenzen allenfalls einen kurzfristigen Einfluss auf den Wechselkurs. Langfristig ist das Preisniveau entscheidend, so dass der hohe Yen mit der Deflation der 90er Jahre erklärt werden kann. Die massiven Devisenmarktinterventionen der 90er Jahre konnten die Aufwertung nur vorübergehend aufhalten, wenn sie nicht sterilisiert wurden. Langfristig konnten sie jedoch die Aufwertung nicht verhindern.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 70 (2001)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 489-503

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:70-40-4

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Cited by:
  1. Koepke, Nikola & Baten, Joerg, 2005. "The biological standard of living in Europe during the last two millennia," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(01), pages 61-95, April.
  2. Pitterle, Ingo & Steffen, Dirk, 2004. "Welfare Effects of Fiscal Policy under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes : The Role of the Scale Variable of Money Demand," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 284, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  3. Stadler, Manfred, 2003. "Innovation and growth: The role of labor-force qualification," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 255, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  4. Manfred Stadler & Rüdiger Wapler, 2004. "Endogenous Skilled-biased Technological Change and Matching Unemployment," Journal of Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 81(1), pages 1-24, 01.
  5. Baten, Jörg & Wallusch, Jacek, 2003. "Market integration and disintegration of Poland and Gemany [Germany] in the 18th century," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 268, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.

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