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Short-run and Long-run Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

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  • Takatoshi Ito

Abstract

The survey data on the yen/dollar exchange rate, collected twice a month for eight years from 1985 to 1993, shows the following features. First, the expected exchange rate changes in the short horizon (one month) are of the band-wagon type while the expected changes in the long horizon (three to six months) are of the mean- reversion type. That is, foreign exchange traders infer from recent appreciations or depreciation that the recent change in the exchange rate will continue for a while, but the direction of changes will reverse, eventually. Second, this result is robust for the entire sample period, which includes sub-periods of sharp yen appreciations and of relative calm, and with respect to different specifications. Third, the deviation from an equilibrium exchange rate does not yield a robust estimate in the regression of expectation formation. Although the history of the yen/dollar exchange rate fluctuations in the past two decades shows mean reversion over several years, they are not captured in the six-month expectations in the survey data.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4545.

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Date of creation: Nov 1993
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4545

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  1. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Jeffrey Frankel., 1995. "How Well Do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-058, University of California at Berkeley.
  2. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2002. "Bandwagon effects and run patterns in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
  3. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  4. Pippenger, John, 2004. "In search of overshooting and bandwagons in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 87-98, February.
  5. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael & Schröder, Michael, 2005. "Do Dollar Forecasters Believe too Much in PPP?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Leibniz Universität Hannover dp-321, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  6. Ronald MacDonald & Jun Nagayasu, 2013. "Currency forecast errors at times of low interest rates: evidence from survey data on the Yen/Dollar exchange rate," Working Papers 1321, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  7. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  8. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.

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