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Model selection in under-specified equations facing breaks

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Author Info

  • Castle, Jennifer L.
  • Hendry, David F.

Abstract

When a model under-specifies the data generation process, model selection can improve over estimating a prior specification, especially if location shifts occur. Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can ‘correct’ non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in omitted variables, which leave slope parameters unaltered even when correlated with included variables. Location shifts in included variables induce changes in estimated slopes when there are correlated omitted variables. IIS helps mitigate the adverse impacts of induced location shifts on non-constant intercepts and estimated standard errors, and can provide an automatic intercept correction to improve forecasts following location shifts.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 178 (2014)
Issue (Month): P2 ()
Pages: 286-293

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Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:178:y:2014:i:p2:p:286-293

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

Related research

Keywords: Model selection; Mis-specification; Breaks; Impulse-indicator saturation; Autometrics;

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References

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  1. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik, 2010. "Evaluating Automatic Model Selection," Economics Series Working Papers 474, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  3. David Hendry & Jurgen A. Doornik & Felix Pretis, 2013. "Step-indicator Saturation," Economics Series Working Papers 658, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  4. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  5. Engle, Robert F. & Hendry, David F., 1993. "Testing superexogeneity and invariance in regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1-2), pages 119-139, March.
  6. Castle, Jennifer L. & Doornik, Jurgen A. & Hendry, David F., 2012. "Model selection when there are multiple breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 239-246.
  7. Christophe Bontemps & Grayham E. Mizon, 2008. "Encompassing: Concepts and Implementation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 721-750, December.
  8. Carlos Santos & David Hendry & Soren Johansen, 2008. "Automatic selection of indicators in a fully saturated regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 317-335, April.
  9. Hendry, David F., 1979. "The behaviour of inconsistent instrumental variables estimators in dynamic systems with autocorrelated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-314, February.
  10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  11. Salkever, David S., 1976. "The use of dummy variables to compute predictions, prediction errors, and confidence intervals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 393-397, November.
  12. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  13. Granger, Clive W.J. & Hendry, David F., 2005. "A Dialogue Concerning A New Instrument For Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 278-297, February.
  14. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
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Cited by:
  1. Jennifer L. Castle & Jurgen A. Doornik & David F. Hendry, 2013. "Model Selection in Equations with Many ‘Small’ Effects," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(1), pages 6-22, 02.

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