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The Impact of Directed Lending on Long-run Growth in Belarus

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  • Dzmitry Kruk

Abstract

The study deals with a specific form of financial repression peculiar to Belarus – a mechanism of directed loans. Under selective or directed credit programs, banks are required to allocate certain percentages of their asset portfolios for loans to priority sectors at subsidized loan rates of interest. In order to hedge against possible risks associated with directed loans, banks can offer higher interest rates or ration credit to non-favored borrowers. As a result, the flexibility of the financial system is decreased, while its fragility is increased. Under directed loans the economy may benefit from more rapid capital accumulation, but faces losses in efficiency. Directed lending may be justified until additional gains in capital accumulation compensate losses in. efficiency. This may be true in case of definitely high elasticity of output on capital, which might happen within a transitory period. Nevertheless, the practice of directed lending may not be recognized as effective tool for a longer time period. First, gains in capital gradually decline and losses in efficiency might exceed them. Moreover, when the economy reaches its balanced growth pass, only losses will be associated with the mechanism of directed lending. Second, the mechanism of directed lending may be a source of shocks and high-magnitude fluctuations in the economy. Finally, we show that in Belarus the mechanism of directed lending may result in the decline of growth rates of the economy in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Dzmitry Kruk, 2011. "The Impact of Directed Lending on Long-run Growth in Belarus," BEROC Working Paper Series 14, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    • Handle: RePEc:bel:wpaper:14
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. World Bank, 2010. "Belarus - Industrial Performance Before and During the Global Crisis : Belarus Economic Policy Notes : Note No. 2," World Bank Publications - Reports 2908, The World Bank Group.
    4. David Hendry & Carlos Santos, 2010. "An Automatic Test of Super Exogeneity," Economics Series Working Papers 476, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Gorton, Gary & Winton, Andrew, 1998. "Banking in Transition Economies: Does Efficiency Require Instability?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(3), pages 621-650, August.
    6. World Bank, 2010. "Belarus - Industrial Performance before and During the Global Crisis : Belarus Economic Policy Notes - Note No. 1," World Bank Publications - Reports 2906, The World Bank Group.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dzmitry Kruk & Kiryl Haiduk, 2013. "The Outcome of Directed Lending in Belarus: Mitigating Recession or Dampening Long-Run Growth?," BEROC Working Paper Series 22, Belarusian Economic Research and Outreach Center (BEROC).
    2. Torbjörn Becker & Helena Schweiger & Igor Livshits & Bas B. Bakker & Tymofiy Mylovanov, 2018. "The future of CIS and CEE countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(4), pages 801-826, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Belarus; directed lending; financial repression; economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O42 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Monetary Growth Models

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