Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models
AbstractThe paper investigates explanations for forecasting invariance to structural breaks. After highlighting the role of policy, we isolate possible structural invariance in a simplified dynamic macro model that nevertheless has features in common with the standard model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. We find, as expected, that structural breaks in growth rates and in the means of cointegrating relationships will always damage some of the variables. But we also find examples of "insulation" from shocks. The results about partial robustness is a property of the economy itself (here represented by the DGP) and not of the forecasts.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 13712.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 06 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-10-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-10-20 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Barkbu, Bergljot Bjornson & Nymoen, Ragnar & Roed, Knut, 2003.
"Wage coordination and unemployment dynamics in Norway and Sweden,"
Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics),
Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 37-58, March.
- Barkbu,B.B. & Nymoen,R. & Roed,K., 2001. "Wage coordination and unemployment dynamics in Norway and Sweden," Memorandum 11/2001, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
- Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2009.
"Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 35-68, 02.
- Akram, Q. Farooq & Nymoen , Ragnar, 2007. "Model selection for monetary policy analysis How important is empirical validity?," Memorandum 14/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013.
"Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
- M Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick & Mikhail Pranovich, 2011. "Optimal Forecasts in the Presence of Structural Breaks," DNB Working Papers 327, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Marit Balstad Jensen) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Marit Balstad Jensen to update the entry or send us the correct address.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.