Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models
AbstractThe paper investigates explanations for forecasting invariance to structural breaks. After highlighting the role of policy, we isolate possible structural invariance in a simplified dynamic macro model that nevertheless has features in common with the standard model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. We find, as expected, that structural breaks in growth rates and in the means of cointegrating relationships will always damage some of the variables. But we also find examples of "insulation" from shocks. The results about partial robustness is a property of the economy itself (here represented by the DGP) and not of the forecasts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology in its series Working Paper Series with number 13712.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 06 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-10-20 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-10-20 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-10-20 (Macroeconomics)
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