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Labour market forecasting : is disaggregation useful?

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Author Info

  • Weber, Enzo

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

  • Zika, Gerd

    ()
    (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany])

Abstract

"Using the example of short-term forecasts for German employment figures, the article at hand examines the question whether the use of disaggregated information increases the forecast accuracy of the aggregate. For this purpose, the out-of-sample forecasts for the aggregated employment forecast are compared to and contrasted with forecasts based on a vector-autoregressive model, which includes not only the aggregate but also the numbers of gainfully employed people at the industry level. The Clark/West test is used in the model comparison. It becomes evident that disaggregation significantly improves the employment forecast. Moreover, fluctuation- window tests help identify the phases during which disaggregation increases forecast accuracy to the strongest extent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

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File URL: http://doku.iab.de/discussionpapers/2013/dp1413.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany] in its series IAB Discussion Paper with number 201314.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 17 Sep 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201314

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Related research

Keywords: Arbeitsmarktprognose - Methode; Prognostik; Beschäftigtenzahl;

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References

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  1. Hendry, David F. & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2011. "Combining Disaggregate Forecasts or Combining Disaggregate Information to Forecast an Aggregate," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(2), pages 216-227.
  2. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  3. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2009. "Model Comparisons in Unstable Environments," Working Papers 09-10, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
  5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-63, July.
  6. Katja Drechsel & R. Scheufele, 2013. "Bottom-up or Direct? Forecasting German GDP in a Data-rich Environment," IWH Discussion Papers 7, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  7. Kenneth D. West & Todd Clark, 2006. "Approximately Normal Tests for Equal Predictive Accuracy in Nested Models," NBER Technical Working Papers 0326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Fuchs, Johann & Weber, Enzo, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses : applying a trend-cycle decomposition to unemployment," IAB Discussion Paper 201301, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  9. Stops, Michael, 2012. "Job matching across occupational labour markets," IAB Discussion Paper 201227, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: Are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 171, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  2. Schwengler, Barbara, 2013. "Einfluss der europäischen Regionalpolitik auf die deutsche Regionalförderung," IAB Discussion Paper 201318, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
  3. Bauer, Angela & Kruppe, Thomas, 2013. "Policy Styles : zur Genese des Politikstilkonzepts und dessen Einbindung in Evaluationsstudien," IAB Discussion Paper 201322, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

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