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Does the Law of One Price Hold in a High-Inflation Environment? A Tale of Two Cities in Turkey

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Abstract

This study addresses price convergence in two cities in Turkey (Istanbul and Ankara) using the annual data over the three quarters of the 20th century (1922–1998), characterized by prevailing high inflation rates for most of the period. In contrast to the rest of the literature addressing convergence in price levels with a typical result of extremely slow convergence rates at best, we argue that convergence is much easier detected in growth rates rather than levels of prices. We suggest using the bounds testing procedure of Pesaran et al. (2001) for this purpose. We find a clear-cut evidence on the existence of a common driving force behind inflation dynamics in Istanbul and Ankara—a finding that is intuitively appealing from the point of view of economic theory.

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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 10-248.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:10-248

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Keywords: Price convergence; Bounds testing procedure; Turkey;

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  1. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Nelson C. Mark & Robert J. Sonora, 2002. "Price Index Convergence Among United States Cities," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(4), pages 1081-1099, November.
  2. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  3. Fabio Busetti & Lorenzo Forni & Andrew Harvey & Fabrizio Venditti, 2007. "Inflation Convergence and Divergence within the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 95-121, June.
  4. Taylor, John B, 1979. "Staggered Wage Setting in a Macro Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 69(2), pages 108-13, May.
  5. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  6. Robert Sonora, 2009. "City relative price convergence in the USA with structural break(s)," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(9), pages 939-944.
  7. Banerjee, A. & Cockerell, L. & Russell, B., 1998. "An I(2) Analysis of Inflation and the Markup," Economics Series Working Papers 99203, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1996. "Convergence to the Law of One Price without Trade Barriers or Currency Fluctuations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1211-36, November.
  9. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  11. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  12. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1978. "Purchasing power parity : Doctrinal perspective and evidence from the 1920s," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 169-191, May.
  13. Isard, Peter, 1977. "How Far Can We Push the "Law of One Price"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 942-48, December.
  14. Robert J. Sonora, 2005. "City CPI Convergence in Mexico," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 359-367, 08.
  15. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
  16. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
  18. Sonora, Robert J., 2008. "Bivariate relative city price convergence in the United States: 1918-1997," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 92-111.
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