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The Demand for Simple-sum and Divisia Monetary Aggregates for Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach

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  • Syed Muhammad Tariq

    (State Bank of Pakistan, Karachi.)

  • Kent Matthews

    (Cardiff Business School, University of Wales College of Crdiff, Cardiff, Wales, UK.)

Abstract

Financial liberalisation and the advance of financial innovation in a number of developed economies has been blamed for the break-down in the demand for money based on simple sum measures. This break-down has prompted research into Divisia measures of the demand for money. Like many developing countries, Pakistan is going through a period of financial deregulation which goes hand in hand with financial innovation due to increased competition in the banking industry. This paper employs the methodology of cointegration to compare simple-sum and Divisia level estimates of the demand for money for Pakistan for the period 1974Q4 to 1992Q4. Simple sum measures of M1 and M2 were compared with Divisia versions. The paper reports little evidence in support of the superiority of the Divisia monetary aggregates. Both types of measure produce a stable demand for money and perform satisfactorily in post-sample stability tests, although the Divisia measure appears to perform marginally better on conventional statistical criteria. However, our conclusions have to be qualified by the limitations of the data and the knowledge that the period of financial innovation and deregulation has been relatively recent. The policy significance of the results suggests that currently there is no advantage from switching from simple-sum to Divisia aggregates at the existing level of official aggregation as the proper indicator of monetary policy. However, if financial deregulation and innovation continues at the current pace, the Divisia aggregates may in future prove to be the better indicator.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 36 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 275-291

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Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:36:y:1997:i:3:p:275-291

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  1. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  2. David A. Dickey & Dennis W. Jansen & Daniel L. Thornton, 1991. "A primer on cointegration with an application to money and income," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 58-78.
  3. Ashfaque H. Khan, 1994. "Financial Liberalisation and the Demand for Money in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 997-1010.
  4. M.A. Akhtar, 1974. "The Demand for Money In Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 40-54.
  5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  6. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  8. Barnett, William A., 1980. "Economic monetary aggregates an application of index number and aggregation theory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 11-48, September.
  9. Laidler, D., 1996. "Notes on the Microfoundations of Monetary Economics," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 9610, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
  10. W.A. Barnett & P.A. Spindt, 1980. "The velocity behavior and information content of Divisia monetary aggregates," Special Studies Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. I. U. Mangla, 1979. "An Annual Money Demand Function for Pakistan. Some Further Results," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 18(1), pages 21-33.
  12. Barnett, William A & Offenbacher, Edward K & Spindt, Paul A, 1984. "The New Divisia Monetary Aggregates," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(6), pages 1049-85, December.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  14. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  15. Barnett, William A., 1978. "The user cost of money," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 145-149.
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Cited by:
  1. Madhavi Bokil & Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2006. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(3), pages 341-368.
  2. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
  3. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Three Attempts at Inflation Forecasting in Pakistan," IMF Working Papers 05/105, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Haroon Sarwar & Zakir Hussain & Masood Sarwar, 2011. "A Semi-Nonparametric Approach to the Demand for Money in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(2), pages 87-110, Jul-Dec.
  5. Khan, Mahmood ul Hasan & Hussain, Fida, 2005. "Monetary aggregates in Pakistan: theoretical and empirical underpinnings," MPRA Paper 31430, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  6. Sarwar, haroon & Hussian, zakir & Awan, masood sarwar, 2011. "Money Demand Functions for Pakistan (Divisia Approach)," MPRA Paper 34361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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