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Intersectoral dynamics and economic growth in Ecuador

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  • Fiess, Norbert M.
  • Verner, Dorte

Abstract

The authors analyze sectoral growth in Ecuador, using multivariate co-integration analysis. They find significant long-run relationships between the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors. Moreover, they are able to derive dynamic sector models that combine the short-run links between the three sectors with long-run dynamics. When disaggregate the three sectors into their intra-sectoral components, they discover many interesting relationships that contribute to a better understandingof inter- and intra-sectoral dynamics in the context of Ecuadorian economic growth. Their findings suggest that more attention should be paid to inter-dependencies in sectoral growth, since an improved understanding of inter-sectoral dynamics may facilitate the implementation of policy aimed at increasing economic growth in Ecuador. There appears to be no direct link between the oil sector, and the non-oil industrial sectors. But strong evidence supports co-integration between the oil industry, and financial services, as well as between the oil industry, and public services. This means, among other things, that the oil industry is likely to affect other sectors through the financial sector, the public sector, or both.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 2514.

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Date of creation: 31 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2514

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Related research

Keywords: Economic Theory&Research; Statistical&Mathematical Sciences; Poverty Assessment; Achieving Shared Growth; Environmental Economics&Policies;

References

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  1. Hendry, D.F. & Mizon, G.E., 1990. "Evaluating Dynamic Econometric Models By Encompassing The Var," Economics Series Working Papers 99102, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Blunch, Niels-Hugo & Verner, Dorte, 1999. "Sector growth and the dual economy model - evidence from Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2175, The World Bank.
  3. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  6. Munisamy Gopinath & Terry L. Roe & Mathew D. Shane, 1996. "Competitiveness of U.S. Food Processing: Benefits from Primary Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 1044-1055.
  7. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Verner, Dorte & Fiess, Norbert M., 2003. "Oil, agriculture, and the public sector: linking intersector dynamics in Ecuador," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3094, The World Bank.
  2. João Gaspar & Gilson Pina & Marta C. N. Simões, 2014. "Agriculture in Portugal: linkages with industry and services," GEMF Working Papers 2014-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.

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