Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource Economies: A Tale of Two Countries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Augustin Kwasi Fosu

Abstract

The current paper demonstrates a dichotomy of the growth response to changes in the barter terms of trade (TOT), employing as case studies the following two African countries: Botswana and Nigeria. Using distributed-lag analysis, the paper finds that the effect of TOT on output is positive and negative for the two countries, respectively. I interpret these results as supportive of the ‘resource curse’ hypothesis for Nigeria but not for Botswana. I further argue that the superior institutional quality (IQ) in Botswana, relative to Nigeria, is likely responsible for the contrasting results. However, Nigeria appears to be making progress on IQ, especially in the last decade. Continuing such progress would be necessary if the country was to reverse course.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/workingpapers/pdfs/csae-wps-2011-09.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford in its series CSAE Working Paper Series with number 2011-09.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2011-09

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manor Road, Oxford, OX1 3UQ
Phone: +44-(0)1865 271084
Fax: +44-(0)1865 281447
Email:
Web page: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: African resource economies; terms of trade; growth;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Murphy, Kevin M. & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Industrialization and the Big Push," Scholarly Articles 3606235, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1992. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(4), pages 829-41, July.
  3. Mendoza, Enrique G., 1997. "Terms-of-trade uncertainty and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 323-356, December.
  4. Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "Political foundations of the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 447-468, April.
  5. Paul Collier & Benedikt Goderis, 2007. "Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Natural Resource Curse: Reconciling a Conundrum," CSAE Working Paper Series 2007-15, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  6. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
  7. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2003. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: How Natural Resource Export Structures Affect the Political Economy of Economic Growth," Middlebury College Working Paper Series 0308, Middlebury College, Department of Economics.
  8. Basu, Parantap & McLeod, Darryl, 1991. "Terms of trade fluctuations and economic growth in developing economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1-2), pages 89-110, November.
  9. Arvind Subramanian & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2003. "Addressing the Natural Resource Curse," IMF Working Papers 03/139, International Monetary Fund.
  10. James A. Robinson & Q. Neil Parsons, 2006. "State Formation and Governance in Botswana," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(1), pages 100-140, April.
  11. Baland, Jean-Marie & Francois, Patrick, 2000. "Rent-seeking and resource booms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 527-542, April.
  12. Xavier Sala-i-Martin & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "Addressing the natural resource curse: An illustration from Nigeria," Discussion Papers 0203-15, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  13. José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2004. "Ethnic polarization, potential conflict and civil wars," Economics Working Papers 770, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2005.
  14. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2002. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: Implications of Coup Events in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 329-348, 01.
  15. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2010. "Africa's Economic Future: Learning from the Past," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(1), pages 62-71, 04.
  16. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  17. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 1990. "Export composition and the impact of exports on economic growth of developing economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 67-71, September.
  18. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2008. "Challenges and Opportunities for Resource Rich Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 005, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  19. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2000. "Natural Resources, Education, and Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Bleaney, Michael & Greenaway, David, 2001. "The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 491-500, August.
  21. Pagano, Marcello & Hartley, Michael J., 1981. "On fitting distributed lag models subject to polynomial restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 171-198, June.
  22. FOSU, Augustin Kwasi, 2008. "Democracy and growth in Africa: Implications of increasing electoral competitiveness," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(3), pages 442-444, September.
  23. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "A Mixed Blessing: Natural Resources and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1668, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Ndulu,Benno J. & O'Connell,Stephen A. & Bates,Robert H. & Collier,Paul & Soludo,Chukwuma C., 2009. "The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960–2000," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521127752, April.
  25. Hendry, David F. & Pagan, Adrian R. & Sargan, J.Denis, 1984. "Dynamic specification," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 1023-1100 Elsevier.
  26. Emanuele Baldacci & Qiang Cui & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta, 2004. "Social Spending, Human Capital, and Growth in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 04/217, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Azzam, Azzeddine M. & Yanagida, John F., 1987. "A Cautionary Note On Polynomial Distributed Lag Formulations Of Supply Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(01), July.
  28. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 1999. "The big push, natural resource booms and growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-76, June.
  29. Gyimah-Brempong, Kwabena & Traynor, Thomas L, 1999. "Political Instability, Investment and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 8(1), pages 52-86, March.
  30. Kimenyi, Mwangi S & Mbaku, John M, 1993. " Rent-Seeking and Institutional Stability in Developing Countries," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 77(2), pages 385-405, October.
  31. Augstin Kwasi Fosu, 2003. "Political Instability and Export Performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 68-83.
  32. Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2008. "Implications of the External Debt-servicing Constraint for Public Health Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 363-377.
  33. Jos� G. Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005. "Ethnic Polarization, Potential Conflict, and Civil Wars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 796-816, June.
  34. Fosu, A. K., 2001. "Political instability and economic growth in developing economies: some specification empirics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 289-294, February.
  35. Blattman, Christopher & Hwang, Jason & Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2007. "Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 156-179, January.
  36. Torvik, Ragnar, 2002. "Natural resources, rent seeking and welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 455-470, April.
  37. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 2007. "Fiscal Allocation for Education in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications of the External Debt Service Constraint," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 702-713, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2011-09. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard Payne).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.