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Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource Economies: A Tale of Two Countries

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  • Augustin Kwasi Fosu

Abstract

The current paper demonstrates a dichotomy of the growth response to changes in the barter terms of trade (TOT), employing as case studies the following two African countries: Botswana and Nigeria. Using distributed-lag analysis, the paper finds that the effect of TOT on output is positive and negative for the two countries, respectively. I interpret these results as supportive of the ‘resource curse’ hypothesis for Nigeria but not for Botswana. I further argue that the superior institutional quality (IQ) in Botswana, relative to Nigeria, is likely responsible for the contrasting results. However, Nigeria appears to be making progress on IQ, especially in the last decade. Continuing such progress would be necessary if the country was to reverse course.

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  • Augustin Kwasi Fosu, 2011. "Terms of Trade and Growth of Resource Economies: A Tale of Two Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2011-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2011-09
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    2. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    3. Nayda Avalos & Veronica Gonzales Stuva & Adam Heal & Kaoru Lida & Naohito Okazoe, 2013. "Papua New Guinea and the Natural Resource Curse," ARTNeT Working Papers 128, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    4. Bent, Peter H., 2020. "Recovery from financial crises in peripheral economies, 1870–1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    5. Pérez, Claudia & Claveria, Oscar, 2020. "Natural resources and human development: Evidence from mineral-dependent African countries using exploratory graphical analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. Silvana Sandonato & Henry Willebald, 2018. "Natural Capital, Domestic Product and Proximate Causes of Economic Growth: Uruguay in the Long Run, 1870–2014," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-26, March.
    7. Ivan Trofimov, 2021. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 41-67, June.
    8. Songfeng, Cai & Yaxiong, Zhang & Bo, Meng, 2014. "The Impact Analysis of TTIP on BRICs—based on dynamic GTAP model considering GVC," Conference papers 332528, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Evans Stephen Osabuohien & Uchenna Rapuluchukwu Efobi, 2013. "Africa's Money in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(2), pages 292-306, June.
    10. Issaka Dialga, 2017. "Changing the Africa's impoverishing economic model: Towards a rewarding sustainable specialization model with a new factor of production," Working Papers halshs-01500431, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    African resource economies; terms of trade; growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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