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A threshold cointegration test with increased power

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  • Cook, Steven
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    Abstract

    The low power of threshold, or asymmetric, cointegration tests is addressed. A new test is developed which combines momentum-threshold autoregression (MTAR) and local-to-unity detrending via generalised least squares (GLS). Critical values for the newly proposed GLS-MTAR threshold cointegration test are provided under alternative decisions regarding the deterministic terms employed when implementing the test. Simulation analysis of the test shows it to provide a substantial increase in power relative to the previously proposed MTAR threshold cointegration test of Enders and Siklos [W. Enders, P. Siklos, Cointegration and threshold adjustment, J. Business Econ. Statist. 19 (2001) 166–176].

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM).

    Volume (Year): 73 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 386-392

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:matcom:v:73:y:2007:i:6:p:386-392

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    Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/mathematics-and-computers-in-simulation/

    Related research

    Keywords: Cointegration; Threshold adjustment; Asymmetry; Monte Carlo simulation; Test power;

    References

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    1. Pippenger, Michael K & Goering, Gregory E, 1993. "A Note on the Empirical Power of Unit Root Tests under Threshold Processes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(4), pages 473-81, November.
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    8. Enders, Walter & Siklos, Pierre L, 2001. "Cointegration and Threshold Adjustment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 166-76, April.
    9. Cook, Steven, 2004. "A momentum-threshold autoregressive unit root test with increased power," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(4), pages 307-310, May.
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    13. Siklos, Pierre L., 2002. "Asymmetric adjustment from structural booms and slumps," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 329-333, November.
    14. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
    15. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2006. "The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 103-108.
    16. Chen, Li-Hsueh & Finney, Miles & Lai, Kon S., 2005. "A threshold cointegration analysis of asymmetric price transmission from crude oil to gasoline prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 233-239, November.
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    Cited by:
    1. Virginie Coudert & Hélène Raymond, 2010. "Gold and Financial Assets: Are There Any Safe Havens in Bear Markets?," Working Papers 2010-13, CEPII research center.
    2. Araujo-Enciso, Sergio Rene, 2011. "The Takayama and Judge Price and Allocation Model and its Application in Non-linear Techniques for Spatial Market Integration," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114225, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Yang, Zheng & Tian, Zheng & Yuan, Zixia, 2008. "Small sample improvements in the threshold cointegration test using residual-based moving block bootstrap," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 78(4), pages 507-513.
    4. Peter Sephton & Janelle Mann, 2013. "Threshold Cointegration: Model Selection with an Application," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels, vol. 56(2), pages 54-77.

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