Forecasting Euro-Area Macroeconomic Variables Using a Factor Model Approach for Backdating
AbstractWe suggest to use a factor model based backdating procedure to construct historical Euro-area macroeconomic time series data for the pre-Euro period. We argue that this is a useful alternative to standard contemporaneous aggregation methods. The paper investigates for a number of Euro-area variables whether forecasts based on the factor-backdated data are more precise than those obtained with standard area-wide data. A recursive pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting experiment using quarterly data is conducted. Our results suggest that some key variables (e.g. real GDP, inflation and long-term interest rate) can indeed be forecasted more precisely with the factor-backdated data.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Konstanz in its series Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz with number 2012-15.
Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: 02 Aug 2012
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
- C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-08-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2012-08-23 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2012-08-23 (Macroeconomics)
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