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Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride from Climate Change? Evidence from Argentine Time Series Data

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  • Hildegart Ahumada

    (School of Government, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Av. Figueroa Alcorta, Buenos Aires 7350, Argentina)

  • Magdalena Cornejo

    (School of Government, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Av. Figueroa Alcorta, Buenos Aires 7350, Argentina
    National Scientific and Technical Research Council (CONICET), Av. Figueroa Alcorta, Buenos Aires 7350, Argentina)

Abstract

We analyze the influence of climate change on soybean yields in a multivariate time-series framework for a major soybean producer and exporter—Argentina. Long-run relationships are found in partial systems involving climatic, technological, and economic factors. Automatic model selection simplifies dynamic specification for a model of soybean yields and permits encompassing tests of different economic hypotheses. Soybean yields adjust to disequilibria that reflect technological improvements to seed and crops practices. Climatic effects include (a) a positive effect from increased CO 2 concentrations, which may capture accelerated photosynthesis, and (b) a negative effect from high local temperatures, which could increase with continued global warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2021. "Are Soybean Yields Getting a Free Ride from Climate Change? Evidence from Argentine Time Series Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-14, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:9:y:2021:i:2:p:24-:d:568626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Hildegart Ahumada & Magdalena Cornejo, 2019. "How econometrics can help us understand the effects of climate change on crop yields: the case of soybeans," School of Government Working Papers 201902, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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