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Evidence of slowing yield growth – the example of Swiss cereal yields

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Author Info
Finger, Robert

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Abstract

We analyze trends in yield growth and yield variability of barley, maize, oats, rye triticale and wheat in Switzerland from 1961 to 2006. In contrast to linear trends in cereal yield growth that are usually assumed for Europe, cereal yields have leveled off due to widespread extensive cereal production in Switzerland since the early 1990’s. This might also indicate prospects for future crop yield developments in other countries if similar farming practices are widely-used. Even though we find increasing yield variability for barley and rye, no increasing trend in relative yield variability (relative to yield levels) is found for all analyzed crops. Furthermore, this study emphasizes the importance of robust regression methods to ensure reliable results in trend estimation.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/9475/
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 9475.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:9475

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Related research
Keywords: climate change; crop yield development; detrending; robust regression; Switzerland; crop yield variability; agri-environmental policy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
Q28 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy
Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Agricultural Extension Services
Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounting

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Jette Krause, 2008. "A Bayesian approach to German agricultural yield expectations," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 68(1), pages 9-23, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Finger, Robert & Schmid, Stéphanie, 2007. "Modelling Agricultural Production Risk and the Adaptation to Climate Change," MPRA Paper 3943, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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This page was last updated on 2009-12-22.

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